Algeria, adoption of the 2025 finance law: what will be the impact of the significant budget deficit?

Algeria, adoption of the 2025 finance law: what will be the impact of the significant budget deficit?
Algeria, adoption of the 2025 finance law: what will be the impact of the significant budget deficit?

Par Abderrahmane MEBTOULUniversity professor, international expert.

[ 1 USD = 136 DZD] Let us remember that a finance law is simply an accounting document tracing the expenditure and revenue of a Nation and cannot replace strategic planning which takes into account both internal and global changes in perpetual evolution. In a finance law, the credits allocated to each mission or program of the general state budget are presented in two columns, commitment authorizations (AE) and payment credits (CP). AEs “constitute the upper limit of expenses that can be incurred. They make it possible to incur expenses that can be spread over several financial years. The CP constitutes the upper limit of expenditure that can be authorized or paid during the year to cover commitments entered into within the framework of commitment authorizations »

1. Expenses

Presidency of the Republic AE 68,573,110,000 Algerian dinars – CP 74,413,914,000

Services first ministry AE 14,011,508,000- CP 41,730,090,000 d

National Defense AE 3,349,514,000,000 – CP 3,349,514,000,000

Ministry of Foreign Affairs AE 72,179,390,000 CP 74,557,390,000

Energy-mines, renewable energies AE 171,097,080,000 CP 74,557,390,000

Interior and local authorities AE 1,365,834,086,000 CP 1,389,139,586,000 including DGSN 530,537,500,000

Justice   AE 168.988.258.000 CP 167.307.100.000

Finance AE 3,635,807,842,000 including treasury and accounting management 1,069,085,238,000 CP 3,633,448,042,000

Mujahideen and beneficiary AE 251,006,273,000 CP 251,643,046,000

Religious affairs and wakfs AE 56,644,239,000 CP57,735,341,000

Higher education and scientific research AE 736,385,690 including scientific research 20,9963,580,000 CP 776,032,690,000

National education AE 1,645,254,921,000 including general administration 1,526,132,719,000 and teaching 105,107,682,000 CP 1,716,174,921,000

Vocational training and education AE 106,601,679,000 including general administration 103,384,130,000 and vocational education 84,000,000 CP 118,125,197,000

Culture et arts AE 27.981.183.000  CP 41.554.757.000

Youth AE 31,013,694,000 CP 32,362,928,000

Sports   AE   83.689.173.000  CP 91.391.639.000

Post and telecommunications AE 12,997,635,000 including the development of telecommunications 38,700,000 CP 15,690,265,000

National solidarity-family-and status of women AE 243,754,297,000 including social development and humanitarian action 190,074,828,000 CP 244,677,025,000

Pharmaceutical industry and production AE 8,681,505,000 including investment support 3,015,171,000 CP 10,762,765,000

Agriculture, AE rural development and fishing 732,283,403,000 including agriculture and rural development 659,205,678,000 and maritime fishing 897,125,000 CP 802,103,937,000

Housing, town planning and city AE 450,264,441,000 including housing 261,179,240,000 CP 540,572,249,000

Foreign trade and export promotion AE 657,000,000 CP 657,000,000

Internal trade and regulation of the morning market CP 125.092.093.000 AE 125.424.193.000

Communication AE   2.400.383.000  CP 3.800.883.000

Public works and basic infrastructure AE 189,554,093,000 including road and motorway infrastructure 125,004,994,000 CP 710,156,758,000

Hydraulics 310,837,737,000 AE including drinking and industrial water supply 150,896,113,000 CP 318,710,950,000

Transport   AE  42.957.226.000  CP 75.632.626.000

Tourism and crafts AE 6,0072,591,000 including general administration 5,138,063,000 CP 13,721,947,000

Health AE 1,004,413,554,000 including general administration 740,638,353,000 CP 1,004,992,554,000

Work, employment and social security AE 836.209.377.000 including 353.152.179.000 social protection system CP 836.309.377.000

Relations with Parliament AE 613,000,000 CP 622,000,000

Environment and quality of life AE 6,612,290,000 including general administration 4,571,627,000 CP 11,141,990,000

Knowledge economy AE, start-up 19,674,828,000 CP 19,647,828,000

Subtotal of ministries AE 15,787,627,599,000 – CP 16,764,014,538,000

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National Assembly AE 8,000,000,000 CP 8,000,000,000

Council of the Nation AE 4,100,000,000 CP 4,100,000,000

Constitutional Court AE 4780,540,000 CP 906,984,000

Subtotal of specific portfolios AE 12,880,540,000 – CP 13,006,984,000

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Supreme Court AE 3,884,712,000 CP 5,884,712,000

Council of State AE 1,331,414,000 CP1,346,614,000

Superior Council of the Judiciary AE 510,000,000 CP 310,000,000

Court of Auditors AE 1,681,586,000 CP 1,654,515,000

High authority for the fight against corruption AE 400,480,000 CP 450,480,000

Independent Elections Authority AE 4,681,180,000 CP 4,091,180,000

National Economic, Social and Environmental Council AE 887.139.000 CP 917.139.000

High Islamic Council AE 191,205,000 CP 191,205,000

Higher Council of the Arabic Language AE 437,396,000 CP 437,396,000

National Human Rights Council AE 258,540,000 CP 258,54,000

Algerian Academy of Sciences and Technologies AE 284,403,000 CP 284,40,000

National Council for Scientific Research and Technology AE 224,472,000 CP 224,472,000

National Observatory of Civil Society AE 424,150,000 CP

Higher Youth Council AE 1,106,335,000 CP 1,126,235,000

Subtotal of program portfolios of public institutions AE 16,304,012,000 and CP 17,592,613,563,000

Grand total of expenses for the CP which are used to calculate the budget deficit of 16,794,613,563,000 dinars sot at the rate of 134 dinars one dollar 125.35 billion dollars

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2.-Recipes

Taxes of all kinds 7,610,849,673,111

tax revenue including income tax 4,156,886,963,335 and capital tax 80,017,182,668

Hydrocarbon taxation 3,453,962,709,776

Revenue from State domains 82,200,000,000

Income from State financial participations 580,000,000,000

Remuneration for services rendered by the State and zero royalties

Miscellaneous products from the budget 250,000,000,000

Exceptional products miscellaneous zero

Competition fund, donations and legacies 14,000,000

Interest and proceeds from loans, advances and zero state investment

Total revenue 8,523,063,673,111 Algerian dinars

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In summary, at the rate of 134 dinars to the dollar the budget deficit for 2025 will be 63.60 billion dollars compared to 46.04 billion dollars in 2024 and 30.50 billion dollars in 2022. Reduced to the government’s GDP the rate would be 22.20% and that of international institutions 24.01% Pending its correction by international institutions, Algeria’s GDP according to government data was $239.9 billion in 2023 and is expected to be $266.78 billion in 2024 and with a growth rate according to the 2025 finance law of 4.5% would be in nominal value of 278.71 billion dollars in 2025, 300.71 billion dollars in 2026 and 308.13 billion dollars in 2027. while certain international econometric projections predict that Algeria’s GDP should evolve around 256.49 billion dollars in 2025 and 262.90 billion dollars in 2026. Force est to note an impressive number of institutions outside ministries with an increase in the budget whose usefulness will need to be analyzed. And the problem posed is the following: will this deficit fuel non-value-creating expenditure and in this case the acceleration of the inflationary process is inevitable, it is an economic law applicable to all countries without expression, especially in the event of stagnation as in 2024 or a drop in hydrocarbon revenues which serve as a social buffer or will a large fraction be allocated to productive activities directly or indirectly as recommended by the UNDP including education and health?

ANNEXE

Source Official Journal of the Algerian Republiasse number 84 of December 26, 2024 or the average price in 2024 was 134 dinars one dollar

The fiscal reference price per barrel of crude oil used is $60 over the period 2025-2027. -The market price of a barrel of crude oil is 70 dollars over the period 2025-2027. Economic growth will reach 4.5% (2025 and 2026) and growth excluding hydrocarbons would be 5% in 2025. Gross domestic product (GDP) should be at 37,863 billion

DA ($278.71 billion).

Exports of goods would reach $50.9 billion. Imports of goods are expected to be at $46.07 billion. The trade balance is expected to record a surplus of $4.83 billion. The balance of payments is expected to achieve a surplus of $1.17 billion.

Outstanding foreign exchange reserves would reach $72.95 billion, representing 16 months of imports of goods and services. Budgetary revenues should improve by 3.5% to reach 8,523.06 billion DA. Oil taxation stands at 3,453.96 billion DA. Budgetary expenditure would increase by 9.9% to 16,794.61 billion. The budget deficit would increase to 8,271.55 billion DA.

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