What will the weather be like at the start of 2025? Météo France trends for January, February and March

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After a winter expected to be “warmer than normal”, what does Météo France forecast for the first months of the year 2025? The National Meteorological Institute has published its trends for January, February and March 2025.

Note that this is indeed estimates and not proven forecastswhich are not used to “provide information on the expected weather in France on such or such a day, but to identify probabilistic trends on a European scale”, explains Météo France in its article.

More softness than normal

The scenario deemed “most likely” for January, February and March 2025 is that involving “more frequent than normal anticyclonic conditions over most of Europe”. Conversely, some regions will see more “disruptions than normal”.

Météo France splits its trends into two parts: temperatures and precipitation. Also, on the mercury side, it is estimated that the first three months of 2025 will be synonymous with more softness than normal .

In France, the institution favors a scenario that is “warmer than normal for the season” (at 70%). Conversely, there is only a 20% chance that temperatures will be “in line with seasonal norms” and a 10% chance that it will be “colder than seasonal norms”.

Sweetness yes, but be careful: “one-off colder episodesremain possible”, warns Météo France automatically.

A probably “wetter” scenario

Let us now look at the precipitation . For the first three months of 2025, “no scenario is preferredon the rest of France and most of Europe.

Small exception made “in the south of France and the Iberian Peninsula”, where conditions will probably be “drier than normal”, underlines Météo France.

A wetter scenario is favored over northern Europe.

In terms of figures, Météo France estimates that there is a 50% chance that it will be drier than usual at this time of year, 25% that the precipitation will be “in line with seasonal norms” and 25%. that it is “wetter”.

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