American organizations World Weather Attribution et Climate Central studied the question and published their findings in a report on the 2024 global weather. The Enso cycle (The ChildThe Child – SouthernSouthern oscillation) was marked by a fairly strong El Niño phase in 2024, without being record-breaking either. El Niño is well known for its warming impact on the climate (which will merit further study once all the data is available). weather reportweather report of the year 2024 collected), but also on disasters, such as droughts in certain countries and floods elsewhere.
Global warming has had a major impact in most disasters
El Niño lasted one year, from late spring 2023 to June 2024. Its influence is generally very strong 6 to 8 months after its installation: in winter and spring 2024. The report therefore specifies that many events Extremes occurring at the start of 2024 were strongly influenced by El Niño. However, global warming has added to its natural impact: El Niño is characterized by warmer than average water in a specific area of the Pacific. The phase occurs every 2 to 7 years and each time causes droughts in the Amazon, so it is normal to have recorded one in 2023 and 2024.
But this drought was historic and the river AmazonAmazon experienced its lowest level in 120 years, even though much stronger El Niño phases have occurred in the past. The researchers of World Weather Attribution believe that the broadcastsbroadcasts of greenhouse gasgreenhouse gas from human activities have made this drought 30 times more likely. In the current climate context, with warming of +1.4 to +1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, such a severe drought has a probability of once every 50 years. But this will be once every 13 years if the level of warming reaches +2°C.
Some events are clearly linked to El Niño
However, the influence of El Niño and that of global warming vary depending on each event. Most disasters were made worse by global warming, the report said, but there were exceptions: droughts in southern Africa and Panama were more influenced by El Niño. In the case of Panama, studies clearly showed that the El Niño cycle was directly responsible for the low precipitationprecipitation. Since 1900, 4 of Panama’s 5 driest years have occurred in an El Niño context.
The year 2025 should be marked by the phase The GirlThe Girl of the Enso cycle, which is slow to arrive. This is known for its slightly cooling impact on the climate, unlike El Niño. Just like its warm counterpart, La Niña can be responsible for disasters in some countries, but also for positive weather phenomena in other countries. However, the 2025 La Niña phase is expected to be very short and very weak, and is therefore unlikely to have a significant influence.
