2025 is synonymous with major challenges and above all major issues for the global economy. Certain words will make the front page of economic news. Before talking about them throughout the year, let’s discover them together!
If there’s one word you’re going to hear a lot this year, it’s protectionism. This for many reasons but the first is the arrival at the White House of Donald Trump. The economic policy of the future American president is indeed the big issue at the start of 2025. Among the flagship measures of withdrawal that he is considering, the application of customs duties of 10 to 20% on all imports. It could go up to 60% for Chinese products.
We still do not know if these threats are real or if it is a first step, or rather a kick in the negotiation, but this intensification of trade tensions could hinder the growth of world trade!
Also readPanama Canal, Canada, Greenland: Donald Trump’s expansionist dream
Uncertainty
The International Monetary Fund does not take it lightly and even explained it in its latest outlook for the world economy: “ Prepare for uncertain times “. The presidency of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagardeshe is much more categorical, affirming that the uncertainty will be “ abundant in 2025 “. Uncertainties were explained due to the policies of Donald Trump at the head of the world’s largest economy. Uncertainty also explained by the ongoing conflicts across the world, and first and foremost, that in the Middle East. In the long term, it could have negative effects on the energy market.
China – Europe – United States
There is also the situation of the Chine which counts in this global balance. Since if American customs taxes are applied, Beijing will have to find new partners and develop new alliances. But as we have said, things will get complicated with the United States. Chinese companies could be tempted to intensify their competition in Europe but it could be just as complicated with Europeans. The reason? This is because European industry is struggling, in part because Chinese competition is fierce. This is therefore one of the priorities of the new European Commission, the economic security of the 27. This translates, as in the United States, into an increase in taxes, this has already been done for Chinese electric cars, up to at 38%. And since we are talking about Europe, it is impossible to talk about the driving force of the continent, theGermanyentangled in political, economic and social crises. Berlin will have to review its model this year, invest massively and review its debt rules if it wants to avoid new factory closures and tens of thousands of layoffs as is the case today with Volkswagen for example.
Also readHow Germany is trying to save its industry and economy
Resilience
But there are still positives. If we look at growth, the indicators are green! According to theOECDthe organization for economic cooperation and development, global growth for this year 2025 should remain positive, forecasts speak of a trend around 3%. The world’s economies should therefore remain resilient and disinflation, that is to say the decline in inflation, should continue. Interest rates should also decrease. You will have understood, 2025 once again promises to be rich in economic news, there is no doubt that it will also be rich in surprises!
