Ukraine, North Korea, Taiwan… 2025, a year of chaos and conflict in perspective?

The year 2025 promises to be no less chaotic than the previous ones, between wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, alliances between authoritarian regimes and of course the return of the American Donald Trump, whose foreign policy will weigh heavily on the affairs of the world. The alliances formed between Russia and North Korea, Russia and Iran, can also have serious consequences. Here is a non-exhaustive overview of “hot spots” in 2025.

The Near and Middle East on the verge of implosion?

Since the deadly Hamas attack in Israel on October 7, 2023, the region has been in flames and blood, on the verge of generalized war. The escalations still appear to be under control between Israel and Iran, the main support of Hamas and Hezbollah, but until when? Boosted by its victories on the ground and by the return of Donald Trump, the Israeli government seems even less inclined to a political solution with the Palestinians.

The appointment of unconditional supporters like Mike Huckabee, future American ambassador to Israel, pro-colonization, seems to herald a blank check for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “The conflict in Gaza could enter a sort of limbo, with Israel imposing a military solution and keeping troops in the Gaza Strip, without the beginning of a political solution”estimates Michael Horowitz, analyst at security consulting firm Le Beck International.

According to him, the next American administration will also seek to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, which normalize relations between Israel and Arab countries. But as long as the war in Gaza lasts, such an agreement seems unlikely. The situation in Syriawhich freed itself from the yoke of Bashar al-Assad thanks to rebels who had in the past pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda, will also be one to watch: Israel fears the worst-case scenario, while Iran and Hezbollah, who were allies of the dictator, keep an eye on this country.

The war in Ukraine settled by Trump?

When Donald Trump will return to the Oval Officethe invasion of Ukraine by Russia will be almost three years old. kyiv is in a very difficult situation, faced with a shortage of men and dependent on Western aid in the face of Russia which is gaining ground in the East and is being reinforced by North Korean munitions and soldiers. Pressure is increasing on kyiv for negotiations, which from Moscow’s point of view correspond to a capitulation of Ukraine.

Donald Trump declared before his election that he would resolve the issue “in 24 hours”. His complacency towards Russian President Vladimir Putin during his first term, the appointments to his future cabinet of figures critical of Ukraine like Tulsi Gabbard, and above all the prospect of an end to American military support (the Trumpists blocked it for almost of one year to Congress an aid of 60 billion dollars) can make kyiv fear the worst.

However, it is difficult to predict what the American president, renowned for his unpredictability and champion of transactional diplomacy, will do. He and Volodymyr Zelensky called for peace with Russia following their meeting in Paris in early December. 2025 will in any case be a crucial year for Ukraine, depending on the pressure exerted by Washington but also on the capacity or otherwise of Europe to support kyiv.

North Korea’s nuclear threat

This nuclear-armed country, the most closed in the world, is being scrutinized with concern. Pyongyang has increased ballistic tests in 2024, and, like Iran, has made an unprecedented rapprochement with Moscow. North Korea and Russia signed a mutual defense treaty, and in an unprecedented move, Pyongyang sent some 10,000 troops to fight Ukraine. “Putin wants soldiers and munitions from North Korea and in return Pyongyang wants military technology,” summarizes Fyodor Tertiskiy, researcher at Carnegie.

“We should prepare for actions from North Korea that we haven’t seen before,” he said.he shouted to AFP, noting that Kim Jong-un also abandoned “any idea of ​​reunification with the South”. “Military cooperation with Moscow comes amid escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula,” also reports for AFP Andrew Yeo, of Brookings, citing the recent destruction by Pyongyang of roads between the two Koreas, the alleged incursion of South Korean drones into its neighbor, and a new test firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in November.

It’s necessary “prepare for a new phase of great instability and possible escalation in Northeast Asia”, souligne Andrew Yeo.

The Chinese threat to Taiwan

Still in Asia, Taiwan presents all the ingredients of a potential future global conflict. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and says it does not rule out the use of force to bring the island back under its control. In recent years, it has increased its military pressure by sending warplanes, drones and ships around the island almost daily.

The United States is Taiwan’s main security supporter, even though it does not diplomatically recognize the island. If Democrats and Republicans are on a fairly similar line of hostility towards Beijing, Marco Rubio, the next Secretary of State appointed by Donald Trump, is known as being a hawk towards Beijing, banned from entry into Chinese territory.

For his part, Mike Waltz, who is expected to occupy the strategic post of national security adviser at the White House, declared that Washington was in “Cold War with the Chinese Communist Party” (PCC), calling for “to attack” to the “CCP threat” and to “arm Taiwan now”.

(upday with AFP)