December 29, 2024. 10:30 p.m. Lisbon. Jose Alvalade Stadium
Primeira Liga. Day 16
Sporting (Lisbon) vs Benfica (Lisbon)
Possible absences: Inácio, Morita, Santos, Bragança, Gonçalves – Sánchez, Gueye, Prestianni
The Lisbon derby is always full of emotion, drama, passion, and sometimes even fights. There’s no room for shy players here. Time and time again, we have witnessed how crucial fan support can be. In other cases, it is the stronger character of one team that secures a vital victory. Although the two clubs are not particularly shining this season, I don’t think that will affect their clash. Benfica and Sporting will fight until the end; no one will want to back down. This will certainly lead to on-field confrontations, post-match scandals, possible red cards, and/or penalties. But that’s precisely what makes football so captivating – the emotions. The best matches are those where players care deeply about their performance on the field and are determined to win at all costs. I am convinced that an intriguing and thrilling match awaits us, a real derby.
Sporting
The 2024-25 season is the one where Portuguese football is the weakest in the last decade, if not more. The three giants of local football have plunged into crisis. Some face a more complicated situation than others, but overall the top three Primeira clubs have disappointed their fans, especially in the closing months of last year. This is due to various reasons. Porto has a new president who, due to his inexperience, has made many mistakes that have affected the club. Benfica has also made many bad decisions by its president, but he has recognized his mistakes and is starting to rectify them. So, the Eagles are on the road to recovery.
The situation at Sporting is the worst. At this club, everything depended on the coach. Ruben Amorim spent a lot of time building his team, looking for the right players to match his tactical ideas, educating them to play in a specific style… In general, he created a truly magnificent team, which started the season well . The icing on the cake was a resounding victory against Manchester City in the Champions League. However, when Amorim left, the team literally fell apart. Ruben himself disappointed everyone at Manchester United, and no one was there to replace him at Sporting.
The club management was quick to respond; they quickly terminated the interim coach’s contract, and before the match against Benfica, Rui Borges was appointed. He had previously worked with Vitória Guimarães and performed brilliantly there, which is why Sporting believe he is the right coach to replace Amorim.
Benfica
To everyone’s surprise, Benfica found themselves at the top of the table at the end of the calendar year. Not long ago it looked like they would be fighting for second place (at best), but now they have climbed to the top, and Bruno Lage’s team is now considered the main contender for gold medals. This makes sense, given that Benfica has the most balanced and strongest squad in Portugal (in my opinion).
Bruno Lage is indeed an excellent choice from Rui Costa. This is a case where the president did not think for too long but correctly identified the coach to invite, someone who was considered the ideal candidate, with a deep understanding of Benfica. After 20 matches under Lage, there have been 16 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in all competitions. He continues to build his team. Some players could leave Benfica in winter, and new recruits could arrive. However, the backbone of the team is already established. It looks like the Lisbon club will continue to improve as the season progresses. But the hardest part is yet to come for Lage. The next four weeks will be critical for Benfica. It is essential to perform well against Sporting. In January, they have matches in the Portuguese League Cup, Portuguese Cup, and Champions League. It will only be after January that we will understand whether this season can be judged successful for the new coach.
Sporting vs Benfica: Expected line-ups
Sporting vs Benfica: Author’s prediction
The arrival of a new coach is always a guarantee that the team will at least be active. All players will strive to prove themselves to secure a place in the starting XI. Sporting have a fantastic squad, so the main objective is to restore their confidence. Benfica is a very good motivator for the Sporting players, so I am sure that we will see a hot and emotional match. Betting on a winner in such matches can be risky, but I would focus on the squad problems at Sporting and Benfica’s defensive struggles against strong opponents. Therefore, I suggest betting on more than 3 goals.
