Since last Monday, France finally has a government. But now it's the “confectioners' truce”. So, when the school year begins, what will happen? Will François Bayrou hold on? And if so, for how long?
After the “confectioners' truce”, the first council of ministers is not scheduled until Friday January 3. For once, the term is misleading because in reality, for ministers, there is no truce. Sunday December 29, François Bayrou flew to Mayotte with five ministers including Manuel Valls (Overseas) and Elisabeth Borne (Education). As for Eric Lombard, the Minister of the Economy, and Amélie de Montchalin, the Minister of Public Accounts, they must prepare a budget in record time based on the copy left by Michel Barnier. Moreover, Amélie de Montchalin begins, from Monday December 30, to receive her colleagues to discuss arbitrations, ministry by ministry.
Gérald Darmanin, the new Minister of Justice, will open the ball. His predecessor had seen his budget cut by 500 million euros, a slash finally reduced to 250 million. However, the justice programming law negotiated by Eric Dupond-Moretti provided for 10,000 hires of magistrates and clerks and above all 15,000 prison places by 2027. This will be, at best, for 2029, if Gérald Darmanin wins his arbitrations… In other words, his idea of having short sentences carried out, we can already tell you that it is not for tomorrow.
The last council of ministers led by Michel Barnier dates back to December 11, more than three weeks ago. Which is, to say the least, paradoxical given the emergencies to be dealt with: an unprecedented humanitarian crisis in Mayotte and therefore a special law to present, a budget to prepare, farmers who have been waiting for a year for the measures they were promised, New Caledonia which has also been waiting for its billion euros for a year. Not to mention the French and business leaders who would like to know what tax sauce they are going to be served with… In the meantime, the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron, during his wishes on December 31, will perhaps finally say what he think about the situation. And we imagine that François Bayrou will also tell his ministers and his coalition the policy he intends to pursue and the budgetary choices he intends to make. For the moment, it's a big fog…
Explain to us by Laurent Neumann: The 100 days of François Bayrou – 27/12
Three weeks of vacation for parliamentarians
And when will parliamentary work resume? Here again, the French will judge: senators and deputies have granted themselves three weeks of vacation. Work will resume on Monday January 13. François Bayrou will deliver his general policy speech on Tuesday January 14 at 3 p.m. Fateful day when he will finally have to emerge from ambiguity. In the process, LFI will table a motion of censure, undoubtedly supported by the entire left if, between Christmas and New Year's Day, François Bayrou does not give good reasons to the PS not to censor him. However, if we judge by the very right-wing composition of the government and the Prime Minister's inflexible position on pension reform, things seem to be going badly. On the other hand, Marine Le Pen has already said that the RN will not immediately vote for censorship and will wait to learn more about the budget. In other words, contrary to Jean-Luc Mélenchon's self-fulfilling predictions, François Bayrou should still be at Matignon on the evening of January 16.
But for how long? While Michel Barnier lasted 99 days, will François Bayrou go beyond 100 days? This is where it gets tricky. We thought that François Bayrou, unlike Michel Barnier, no longer wanted to depend on the RN. Except that by challenging Xavier Bertrand to justice to please Marine Le Pen and by refusing to suspend the pension reform, he alienated the socialists. The same causes producing the same effects, at the time of the budget, the RN risks once again voting for censure with the entire left. Unless, in the meantime, François Bayrou decides to carefully read the five pages that the socialists have written and which are entitled: “Pact for non-censorship”.
On this document which RMC was able to read, there is a long list of demands: suspension and renegotiation of the pension reform, convening of a social conference on salaries, renouncing the 4,000 job cuts in National Education, renounce the reimbursement of medicines, tax pressure on the wealthiest households and on large companies, renounce the use of 49-3, and above all no new immigration law… François Bayrou has given himself until mid-February to pass a budget. If he fails to convince either the RN or the PS, his government could last even shorter than that of Michel Barnier. And if this were the case, all the pending bills – agricultural orientation law, end of life, fight against drug trafficking – would still be postponed for several months.
