28 December 2024. 9.45pm. Rome. Olympic Stadium
Serie A. Matchday 18
Injuries : Matías Vecino, Pedro, Tidjane Nosslin, Alessio Romagnoli (?) – Mateo Retegui, Gianluca Scamacca
The central clash of the New Year’s pre-party day in Serie A will be the showdown between Lazio and Atalanta – two teams who are seriously aiming for the Scudetto this season. This is particularly true for the Bergamos, who seem to have finally discovered their competitive strength, proving their ability to hold their own against their rivals. Currently, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side occupy first place in the Serie A standings, although Inter, who have a game in hand, are able to catch up with them. Atalanta are on an incredible wave with 11 consecutive league victories, but securing a 12th victory will be a considerable challenge.
Things don’t go as planned for the Romans. In their last five matches, they have suffered two defeats, including a painful 0-6 loss at home to rivals Inter. We cannot say that Marco Baroni’s men completely failed in this match; at times in the first half Lazio looked decent. However, conceding two goals just before halftime completely broke the spirit of the team, who could not recover in the second half. Meanwhile, the Milanese remained ruthlessly clinical, materializing chance after chance without allowing the Romans to raise their heads.
To prove that the home defeat was largely an anomaly, Lazio showed their fighting spirit on the final day against Lecce at Via del Mare. They won the match with a goal scored in the 87th minute. The hosts had been playing with 10 men since the 45th minute due to Frederic Gilbert’s red card, but this fact did not tarnish the Romans’ achievement. The victory marked their fourth success in their last five matches in all competitions, the only setback being against Inter, well, Inter is Inter. Overall, the Eagles achieved 17 wins in 24 matches in the first half of the season, which is a very commendable result.
Atalanta has proven to be a tough opponent for Lazio. In their last eight meetings, the two teams have each won three victories, with the Romans having won only one of the three matches played at home. This victory came last season, ending 3-2, with the hosts scoring the decisive goal in the last minute.
Atalanta
The Bergamasques are currently flying very high! They haven’t dropped points in the league since late September, in a 1-1 draw at Bologna. Since then, it’s been nothing but victories, and mostly convincing victories. Charles De Ketelaere has flourished, showing the form many expected of him during his time at Milan. The Belgian is now one of the main passers in Serie A, with five assists already. Ademola Lookman (recently named African Player of the Year 2024) and Raúl Bellanova follow him with a pass, reflecting the serious productivity of Gasperini’s team. They have scored 42 goals in 17 matches, averaging almost 2.5 goals per game. It was an excellent performance, matched only by Inter, who scored the same number of goals. Additionally, Atalanta set records for the most wins in a year (36) and the most goals scored in that period (126). With one game left, they have the opportunity to add to those accomplishments.
Winning in Rome will not be an easy feat for the Goddess. Aside from the slap inflicted by Inter, Lazio have not lost at home since March 11. Interestingly, bookmakers are confident that Atalanta’s winning streak will be broken in the next three matchdays, where they also face Udinese away and Juventus at home. Gian Piero Gasperini remains calm about it, stating that they are not setting long-term goals, instead focusing on one game at a time, and we’ll see how that goes.
Regarding the match in Rome, it should be noted that both teams are among the most intractable in the league. Lazio and Atalanta have each managed just one draw, trailing only Verona, who have yet to draw this season.
Lazio vs Atalanta : Predicted lineups
For the hosts on Saturday, midfielder Matías Vecino and attackers Pedro and Tidjane Nosslin will not be available. Experienced central defender Alessio Romagnoli has knee problems. The visitors suffered a significant loss with Serie A top scorer Mateo Retegui diagnosed with a torn thigh. Gianluca Scamacca has been unavailable for a long time, which could force Gasperini to play Charles De Ketelaere at the front of the attack.
Lazio vs Atalanta : Author’s prediction
Despite the intractable nature of the teams, a draw seems entirely plausible. At some point, the Bergamasques’ winning streak has to come to an end, and that could very well happen in Rome. The strength of the teams seems roughly equal, especially with the visitors deprived of their top scorer. At the same time, the match should be rich in goals, given that Lazio and Atalanta score a lot (again, Retegui’s absence should be mentioned). I would suggest betting on “Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals”. The odds here are better than two, making it worth a shot.
