After a significant decline in 2023, the drop in greenhouse gas emissions in France shows signs of slowing down in 2024, with even a slight increase in the third quarter, driven by buildings and transport.
In the third quarter, French emissions increased by 0.5% over one year, after a drop of 5% and 2.2% during the first two quarters, Citepa announced on Friday, December 27, the organization mandated to draw up France’s carbon footprint.
Over nine months, emissions remain down 2.4%, excluding carbon sinks. But for comparison, last year over the same period of time, the decline was 6%.
2023 ended with a drop in emissions of 5.8% compared to 2022.
The last year where emissions were increasing was in 2021, with an increase of 6.4% due to the post-Covid recovery.
Without going that far, 2024 should logically be a less good year in terms of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
“The trend over 12 rolling months is currently – 3.1% (moving year)”indicates Citepa, whose data remains provisional for the moment.
And they do not include the absorption of CO2 by carbon sinks, such as forests and soils, which are highly degraded due to global warming and various pollution, but which are nevertheless essential in achieving France’s climate objectives.
+ 11.8% for construction
The slowdown in the decline in emissions over nine months comes from the building and transport sectors, whose emissions have started to rise again in recent months.
Thus in the 3rd quarter, if the energy production and industry sectors still contribute to the dynamic reduction of emissions (– 12.9%), an increase is observed for buildings as well as transport.
Regarding transport, this increase is mainly due to an increase in road traffic emissions (+1.1% over the quarter).
But it is especially the construction sector which weighs down the balance sheet for the third quarter, with an increase of 11.8%. This strong rebound comes from “the increase in emissions associated with the heating of residential and tertiary buildings in September 2024”.
On the good news side, domestic air transport, although less compared to international transport, saw its emissions reduced by 4.1% in the third quarter, amplifying the decline already observed in 2023 (– 3.5%).
The decarbonization of electricity production continues, due to the reduced use of fossil fuels.
The manufacturing industry also continues to reduce its GHGs, even if the pace slows: after -2.8% in the 2nd quarter, the decline is only 1.3% in the third.
For agriculture, Citepa specifies that “only part of the evolution of emissions in the sector” is estimated and the “quasi-stagnation of emissions (+ 0.3%)” over first nine months “remains a partial overview”.
That carbon budget?
Citepa recalls that in 2023, all sectors had contributed to the drop in emissions. “This multifactorial dynamic must continue to maintain a decarbonization trajectory compatible with the objectives of the National Low-Carbon Strategy” (SNBC), underlines the organization.
The reduction trajectory to reach the new provisional target of 270 million tonnes (Mt) CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2030 excluding carbon sinks indicated in the draft SNBC 3 implies a necessary reduction of 4.7% per year (i.e. – 16 Mt CO2e/year on average) between 2022 and 2030, indicates Citepa.
France, which must align with the European objective of -55% emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 and which aims for carbon neutrality in 2050, had failed to respect its first carbon budget (2015-2018) and had revised its ambitions downward in 2019.
The assessment of SNBC 2 should be drawn up in 2025.
