the essential
Despite solid resistance from Ukraine, the Russian army recorded, in 2024, its most significant territorial advances since the start of the invasion in February 2022. Jérôme Pellistrandi, former general and strategy expert, analyzes for La Dépêche du Midi the stakes of the war in Ukraine in 2025.
The year 2024 was marked by significant territorial advances by the Russian army, with 190 villages falling into Russian hands since the start of the year.
Can this progress influence the potential negotiations in 2025?
Jerome Pellistrandi : In 2024, the Russians have the initiative on the ground but they cannot win this war. This progression comes at the cost of extremely significant human losses. In November, it was estimated that more than 1,000 Russian troops were being put out of action every day, which is colossal. We therefore observe a Russian progression, without the army managing to break the Ukrainian defense. What is certain is that Vladimir Putin only sees the negotiation as a capitulation of Ukraine, which is totally unacceptable. The conditions imposed by Putin would inevitably lead to a resumption of conflict in the years to come.
With Donald Trump invested like the 47e President of the United States on January 20, what influence could he have on the peace negotiations in Ukraine?
It is difficult to predict what Donald Trump’s position will be. Two options present themselves: either it decides that the conflict is solely the responsibility of European countries and ends American aid, which would considerably complicate the situation for the Ukrainians and Europeans; or he recognizes the need to continue to support Ukraine, perhaps by different means, in the face of Russian aggressiveness. Regardless, major changes are expected from January 20, but their direction remains unpredictable.
Vladimir Putin has intensified the bombings in Ukraine, as evidenced by the most recent one, that of December 24. In your opinion, is this a strategy to assert a position of strength in possible negotiations?
These bombings above all reflect a desire to punish the Ukrainians for their refusal to surrender and submit to Putin’s “diktat”. When he bombs energy infrastructure, he knows very well that he is making life unbearable for Ukrainians. However, they have demonstrated their resilience and resistance. Strategically, these attacks are deadly but ineffective. They aim above all to demonstrate its power, even though its army has just been humiliated in Syria.
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Is Putin eyeing January 20 as a key date for negotiations, or is he pursuing his goal of breaking Ukraine up for good?
This is an unanswered question but one thing is certain: 2025 is above all a decisive year for Europeans. They must choose between asserting their role as a power by supporting Ukraine or risking permanent downgrading. This will be a pivotal year for the history of Europe.
How will this translate?
If the Europeans accept a compromise that is very unfavorable to Ukraine, it would reveal their weakness and their inability to be a power. But even in this case, Vladimir Putin would continue his business of destabilizing Europe. This is already manifesting itself in actions like electoral manipulation in Romania. Russia’s hybrid war will continue in any case. Russia is our direct adversary, no matter what. It is important to understand that the war in Ukraine concerns us directly. The coming weeks and months will be decisive. 2025 is the year of choices for Europeans.
