Volodymyr Zelensky showed up in Brussels with a very clear message: we need to distil a unique European position that will help Ukraine achieve peace. Put like that, it doesn’t seem like much. Instead it is fundamental. Because only by finding the right solution on this side of the Atlantic – on security guarantees, on peacekeeping troops, on financial commitment – can we then go to Donald Trump. “If you don’t know what happens next it’s not a truce but a frozen conflict,” the Ukrainian president said after attending the European Council. “And we won’t accept it.” Not only that. “For us – he added – the European guarantees are not enough”. In short, NATO is needed. Therefore the USA.
Round and round you always come back there. This explains yesterday’s dinner by Rutte, the general secretary of the Alliance who made his private residence available for a (first) very confidential round of the table on the issues mentioned above.
Ending at 1am, it had as its object the discussion – as far as we know – of “different scenarios” and was preceded by a long bilateral meeting between Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron. “We continued to work on his initiative regarding the presence of forces in Ukraine that could help stabilize the peace path,” Zelensky revealed. The key is to decide what these soldiers should do, with what mandate and in what scenario – with the approval of the UN, therefore with the approval of Russia? As opposed to Moscow? – even before their composition and chain of command. “It is an absolutely premature debate,” says a European official familiar with the exchanges between the 27 in the Council.
Zelensky a Bruxelles
But Zelensky is very explicit about it. Its objective is to join NATO and everything else can, if anything, be considered a bridging solution. Here we have to convince Trump. “I want to listen to his vision and explain ours to him and I hope he will understand me: it is important that he is on our side and helps us stop the war”, added Zelensky, underlining the importance of unity “between the United States and Europe”. Here, Europe. In the conclusions of the summit, the 27 reiterated their willingness to “do more” to support Ukraine, a formula that is now standard practice but – several sources assure – “not empty”. “It’s up to the Ukrainians to define what victory is, the rest will follow,” explains one official. And it is a much more subtle concept than what has been bandied about so far. In other words, if Kiev decides for a truce, full steam ahead.
Unity, we were saying. The Nordic-Baltic countries are pushing not to give in to Vladimir Putin’s pressure. “It is too early to talk about negotiations,” noted Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda. “We see that there have been signs of weakness on the Russian side, in the economy and in their supply of military equipment”, highlighted the Belgian Alexander De Croo, supporting the position of those who, even within NATO circles, consider Moscow to be close at the peak of its war effort. Because in the end, if the truce is rushed, what will happen if Putin then violates it?
The Ukrainian leader already has the answer. “It will fall on whoever decided it and I don’t know what will happen after that,” he warned, reiterating his belief that the Kremlin “won’t stop.” Among Europeans, he assured, there is “total understanding” on this (with the exception of Hungarian Viktor Orban, who was teased by Zelensky because, according to him, he had no mandate to negotiate anything, much less the Christmas ceasefire). “Putin – he thundered – is dangerous for everyone, he is the real Nazi of today: he loves to kill, I think he is crazy and I think he also knows he is crazy”.
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