It is a Putin who is more focused on reassuring his citizens than on galvanizing a possible patriotic spirit, which yesterday he did in four and a half hours of back and forth with journalists and the public in the usual end-of-year press conference. “Prompted” by the hosts, the Russian president speaks with a certain thoughtfulness and even some flashes of irony in front of a gigantic map of the country which shows the four Ukrainian regions annexed via a sham referendum two years ago as already incorporated.
BUT THE WARin fact, remains in the background. Economic issues in particular are driving the discussion, immediately addressed by stating that conditions remain “stable and positive” despite growing inflation. In this sense, a strong economy is indeed the sign of a “reinvigoration of sovereignty”, presented as a true “cornerstone” of the conception of Russia according to Putin: “Defense, technology, education and culture are all elements of fundamental importance for our nation, because if we lose sovereignty we risk weakening the state.”
The isolation towards the West caused by sanctions, then, can only be a good thing: in this way, companies and the various sectors of the country’s industry have been pushed to improve and innovate.
IN SOME WAYis the vindication of the dynamic that many analysts have called «military Keynesianism» to describe the socio-economic strategy that was coupled with the invasion in Ukraine: the leap forward in defense spending (which should reach over 6% of GDP) to drive the rest, inflating wages and promoting employment (indicators in which Russia actually had positive repercussions thanks to the war).
With a significant detail: “We need more girls, more women”, Putin underlined in recognizing that one of the priorities to be addressed is the demographic decline and the female component of the country must be encouraged to have more children.
THE COMBINATION war and economic pressure obviously also involves the occupied territories. In fact, it boasts of reconstruction plans “which extend until 2030” and which are already visibly underway in the various areas conquered by the invasion. In this regard, some of the statements that might sound more surprising are made: the Russian “victory” in Ukraine is declared closer than ever, thanks to the advances of the army in recent months (an army which is also preparing to reconquer the occupied territory of Kiev troops in the Kursk region of Russia, although it is not yet possible to know for sure when). Thus, negotiations are also on the table and Russia, according to Putin, is “open to talking to anyone”.
AGAIN, BUTthere are several caveats: a ceasefire now would only be a pause that would allow the adversary to recover and continue the fighting – says the Russian president, mirroring Kiev’s rhetoric – and what is needed is indeed, and even, a “just peace”; furthermore, the current Ukrainian leadership is to be considered “illegitimate” since no elections are held. It is therefore impossible to open a dialogue.
In short, as often happens, Russia tries to appear calm and confident, mixing more or less veiled threats (there is talk of the Oreshnik missiles, which would not be interceptable by NATO) with good-natured demonstrations of benevolence and minimizations (it is denied that the fall of Assad is a defeat).
The questions are calibrated to allow Putin to touch on various critical points and not deny that difficulties exist. Work is being done elsewhere for those: in the evening the Russian media reported the “voluntary” resignation of the head of counter-espionage Nikolai Yurev, just a few days after the attack on General Kirillov…
