I EU heads of state and government will meet today and tomorrow for thelast round of summits before the Christmas break, awaiting Donald Trump’s inauguration at the White House. The calendar includes the EU-Western Balkans summit, which will be held from this afternoon until the evening.
The point about Ukraine
This evening, then, some leaders are expected to meet at the residence of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to discuss, with the United Kingdom and above all with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, how to coordinate in the event that a ceasefire or truce is agreed in Ukraine and European countries should be asked to send a contingent of peacekeepers to the ground.
According to a European diplomatic source, the possible sending of European troops to Ukraine “is not a matter that arises now”nor, in any case, “an issue that we would deal with at 27”. It therefore falls outside the European Council and is up to the national states or, possibly, to NATO. The meeting in Rutte’s residence is the one about which the least information is circulating and will probably be the most important, also because it will be much smaller than a 27-member EUCO, where there is no shortage of countries that are not too hostile to Vladimir Putin’s Russia. France, Germany, Poland, Italy, the United Kingdom and the EU leaders, Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, should participate. The latter will also be at the dinner of the EU-Western Balkans summit: “We hope that other dinners will be compatible with that of the EU-Western Balkans summit, in which President Costa will take part”, explains a senior EU official.
Tomorrow the last EU Council of 2024, the topics on the leaders’ table
Tomorrow, Thursday 19th, after the usual pre-summits of the EU parties (on the agenda is that of the Patriots, at the Hungarian Permanent Representation, that of the EPP, that of Renew and that of the PES) in the early morning, the last European Council of 2024 will be held, the first chaired by Antonio Costa. The intention is that it should be completed in a single day, concluding in the evening. Costa’s objective, confirms the source, is “to have Euco (as the summits in the Brussels ‘bubble’ are called, ed.) of one day. We’ll see if it’s possible.” Donald Tusk, in his time, had already tried to compress the European Councils into a single day, but had to give up when faced with the swelling of the agendas.
From the draft conclusions circulated so far, There don’t seem to be, on paper, points about which leaders can get into interminable discussions: the text of the conclusions is considered “well balanced” by diplomatic sources, even if in the European Councils one never knows what turn things may take.
I leader they should deal first with Ukraineafter the usual introductory speech by the President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola (who will also participate in the summit on the eve, with the leaders of the Western Balkans), with the physical presence of President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is expected to stay at the Europa Building for half the morning , and then leave the 27 to discuss among themselves.
About Ukraine the line apparently does not change: the EU stands with Kiev and it is up to Kiev “to decide whether it is appropriate to open negotiations” with Moscow. In the meantime, the Union will continue to provide “military assistance”so that, when Ukraine decides to sit at the negotiating table, it can do so from a “strong” position (today this would not be the case, because the front, as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte underlined, is moving westwards , not towards the east).
In Ukraine, faced with the prospect of starting negotiations, the war is intensifying, with “enormous Russian pressure”, according to a dynamic that is “classic” in the history of conflicts, observes a European diplomatic source: when the negotiations, the war becomes furious, because everyone gives everything in order to arrive at the negotiating table in the most advantageous position possible. Therefore, it is natural that the EU, at this stage, should accelerate support for Kiev. We are at a “critical point”, according to an EU source, and the Union must continue to support Ukraine “on the energy level”, with the advancing winter, and with sanctions.
The fifteenth package, approved on Monday by the Foreign Affairs Council, targeted, among other things, the ‘shadow’ fleet of oil tankers that Russia uses to circumvent the price cap on crude oil, Chinese companies and North Korea’s defense minister. The draft conclusions “strongly” condemn the support provided to Russia by “third countries”. North Korea and Iran are explicitly mentioned, but not the fourth member of the so-called ‘Axis of Upheaval’, China.
It is underlined that the deployment of North Korean troops “in Russia” constitutes an “international escalation of the conflict”, with “serious consequences for international peace and security”. The elephant in the room is Donald Trump, who has not yet taken office in the White House, and his intentions regarding Ukraine. “Clearly – explains a senior EU official – the leaders would like to anticipate what the new Administration could do regarding Ukraine”.
At lunch the leaders should discuss the role of the EU in the world, a point on which no conclusions are foreseen. It is appropriate, observes a senior EU official, that the leaders discuss each other, given that “the world is very different from five years ago” and there are also “opportunities” in relations with other areas of the world (not surprisingly, after the Trump’s victory, von der Leyen flew to Montevideo to close the trade agreement with Mercosur). The discussion will be about also relations with the USA and the United Kingdom. The topic of EU defense and its financing has been postponed to the informal summit on 3 February, to which British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has also been invited.
On migrationsto which a chapter of the conclusions is dedicated, an in-depth discussion is not envisaged, but an “acknowledgment of the work in progress”, described exhaustively by President von der Leyen in the usual long pre-summit letter on the topic, in which among other opens up to the creation of “repatriation hubs” in third countries and reports that work is “accelerating” on the definition of safe third countries, which has blocked, for now, the Italian government’s plan to examine asylum requests in Albania of some rescued migrants at sea. There will be a passage on the report of the former Finnish president Sauli Niinisto on the EU security, but without an “in-depth” debate on the topic. The Commission will be entrusted with the task of developing the “lines of work” identified by the report.
After this discussion, the ‘menu’ includes a discussion on Moldova and Georgia. In particular for the second country, which was the birthplace of Joseph Stalin, the European leaders express their “serious concern” for “the direction of action taken by the government”, which has veered decisively in a pro-Russian direction, suspending the process of joining the ‘EU until 2028, which the European Council “regrets”. However, the EU remains divided: on Monday the Foreign Affairs Council failed to adopt sanctions against members of the Georgian government held responsible for the repression of “peaceful” pro-EU demonstrations, because unanimity was lacking (due to Hungary and Slovakia, which, being countries on the eastern border, have a different perception from those of capitals further west).
There will be a dinner at dinner debate on the Middle East, focused in particular on the situation in Syriawhere the jihadists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other forces ousted the dictator Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia. In addition to the consolidated positions of the European Council on the matter (two-state solution, request for a ceasefire, release of hostages held by Hamas, etc.), as regards Syria, the importance of an “inclusive and Syrian-led” process is underlined. ”, of maintaining the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria.
The European Council hopes that the organization currently in power in Damascus, already a member of al Qaeda, will adopt “non-sectarian” governance and protect “members of ethnic and religious minorities”. The EU calls for “creating the conditions for an inclusive and peaceful transition”, inviting the Commission and High Representative Kaja Kallas to prepare “options” to support Syria “in all these efforts”. Kallas announced yesterday that the EU will reopen its delegation in Damascus, to make contact with the new authorities. On site, explains a European diplomatic source, “we are present: there are diplomats who will make contact with the new authorities”.
