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Saudi Arabia and Israel continue to explore avenues for historic rapprochement, under the aegis of the United States. While several Gulf countries have already taken the plunge via accords d’AbrahamRiyadh maintains a position more prudentconditioning any official standardization to concrete progress on the Palestinian question. This requirement places Israel before a strategic dilemma: to pursue its regional policy while responding to Saudi demands, essential to reaching a deal.
The Saudi position is structured around two key principles: the relaunch of a credible diplomatic process for the Palestinians and the end of colonization activities in the West Bank. For Riyadh, normalization cannot be envisaged without tangible gestures in favor of two-state solution. This speech contrasts with the pragmatic approach adopted by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, who had accepted cooperation with Israel despite the stagnation of the Palestinian issue.
Riyadh’s strategic interest
Saudi Arabia does not hide its strategic interests in this approach. By positioning itself as the leader of the Arab worldRiyadh seeks to preserve its credibility with the Arab populations and not to appear as a country renouncing Palestinian rights. The Saudi monarchy also plays a central role in maintaining a regional stabilityparticularly in the face of Iran’s growing influence.
Israel represents a potential ally on several levels:
- Regional securityparticularly in the face of common threats posed by armed groups supported by Tehran.
- Economic cooperationwith opportunities in the energy, technology and agricultural innovation sectors.
- Energy projectssuch as the interconnection of gas and electricity infrastructure, linking Israel to the Gulf States.
For Riyadh, these economic and strategic benefits are however only possible if a balance is found with Palestinian demands, which remain a political and identity symbol unavoidable.
Israel’s response: between pragmatism and resistance
On the Israeli side, the response to the Saudi conditions remains nuanced. On the one hand, Israeli political leaders recognize the strategic importance of an agreement with Riyadh, capable of redefining the regional geopolitical map. However, the Palestinian question remains a major sticking point in the negotiations.
For part of the Israeli government coalition, any concession on the colonization in the West Bank is seen as an unacceptable compromise. This position weakens the room for maneuver of Israeli negotiators, especially as internal political factions continue to advocate for a expansion territoriale in Judea and Samaria.
However, signs of pragmatism emerging. Discreet discussions focus on symbolic measures, such as easing economic restrictions in the West Bank or resumption of financing for Palestinian infrastructure projects. These gestures, although limited, could satisfy Riyadh’s minimum requirements while preserving Israel’s internal balances.
The role of the United States: catalyst or obstacle?
The United States, a major player in the negotiations, plays a central role in facilitating this normalization. Washington sees in an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia a diplomatic victory major, strengthening the regional axis against Iran and consolidating the American position in the Middle East.
However, the US administration faces significant challenges. On the one hand, it must convince Israel to agree to concrete actions in favor of the Palestinians, without provoking an internal political crisis. On the other hand, it must ensure that Riyadh obtains sufficient guarantees to justify its approach to Arab populations, particularly sensitive to the Palestinian question.
Possible scenarios: towards a compromise?
Several scenarios are emerging for the future of negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia:
- A pragmatic agreement : Israel agrees to limited measures (economic and humanitarian) for the Palestinians, allowing Riyadh to move forward without losing face.
- The blockage : Saudi demands, considered excessive by Israel, lead to stagnation in the talks.
- An expanded agreement with reciprocal concessions : A broader diplomatic process is relaunched, involving tangible political progress for the Palestinians and formal normalization between Israel and Riyadh.
In any case, a possible rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia remains a key step for the future of the Middle East. It could redesign regional alliances while imposing new political balances around the Palestinian question.
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