Key information
- Copper demand is expected to increase by more than 66 percent between 2020 and 2040.
- Global copper demand will increase from 25.9 million tonnes in 2023 to 39.1 million tonnes in 2040.
- Oil consumption is expected to decline from 101.9 million barrels per day in 2023 to 66 million barrels per day in 2040.
Goldman Sachs has declared copper “the new oil” in 2021 due to its crucial role in clean energy technologies. This assertion has gained further significance with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that copper demand will increase by more than 66 percent between 2020 and 2040, reflecting the global shift away from oil.
Marcus Lu of Visual Capitalist highlights the expected growth in copper demand through 2040, based on IMF data from October 2024. Copper plays a critical role in many applications, such as power grids, electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy infrastructure. The unique properties of copper also make it indispensable in construction, infrastructure development and the defense industry.
Projecting growth in copper demand
Under a net-zero emissions scenario aimed at limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, global copper demand is expected to increase from 25.9 million tonnes in 2023 to 39.1 million tonnes by 2040. A significant portion of this growth is expected to come from the expansion of the electric vehicle industry. EVs use much more copper than conventional vehicles; a standard EV contains on average 60 to 83 kg of copper, compared to 15 to 20 kg for a traditional vehicle with an internal combustion engine.
Decrease in oil consumption
At the same time, oil consumption is expected to decline from 101.9 million barrels per day in 2023 to 66 million barrels per day in 2040. This decline is attributed to global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and to the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources. Energy efficiency improvements and policy regulations also help reduce oil demand.
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