Turkey meets Russia and Iran in Doha on Saturday to try to find a political and peaceful solution in Syria and avoid chaos on its doorstep.
The three countries, which delegate their foreign ministers, have been partners since 2017 in the Astana process initiated to silence the guns in Syria, without being aligned on the same side of the battlefield.
Moscow and Tehran came to the aid of President Bashar al-Assad and helped him militarily to crush the opposition, while Ankara, without being directly involved on the ground, benevolently observes the progress of the rebel movements.
“For Ankara, the change in the balance of power in Syria represents both an opportunity and a risk,” summarizes Hamish Kinnear, analyst at the consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who this week called on Assad to “reconcile with his people”, “hoped” on Friday that “the advance of the rebels would continue without incident”, without omitting to openly cite their “objective, Damascus”. “, after Aleppo and Hama.
At the center of the equation, more than 900 km of border between the two countries and nearly three million Syrians refugees in Türkiye.
For now, “Turkey’s precise role in the (current) situation remains the subject of speculation,” writes Ömer Özkizilcik, associate researcher at the Atlantic Council in Ankara. “But what is certain is that without being directly involved, Turkey gave the green light to the offensive,” he adds.
“complicated relationships”
Furthermore, he explained to AFP, the Turkish government was aware of the preparations even if its relations are traditionally “complicated” with the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) which is leading the charge across the Syria.
The main thing for Turkey “is stability in Syria and a safe zone to which Syrian refugees can return,” notes Gönul Tol, Turkey director of the Middle East Institute in Washington.
With this objective, she believes, Russia and Erdogan could seek to “promote a transitional government, without Assad but with certain elements of his regime and the opposition”.
In recent months, Mr. Erdogan’s outstretched hand to his neighbor and even his invitation to meet him had remained dead letters, with President Assad first demanding the withdrawal of Turkish forces from north-west Syria, deployed to fight against the Kurdish fighters.
Vladimir Putin, she judges, was irritated by this lack of response from the Syrian president.
a void favorable to chaos
But “Erdogan no longer advocates the overthrow of the Assad regime which would create a vacuum from which ISIS (the Islamic State group, Editor’s note) and Kurdish groups could benefit,” continues Ms. Tol.
“Assad has managed to irritate everyone, including the Iranians, the Russians and the Turks, because he is dragging his feet in efforts to reach agreements with Turkey and others,” she points out.
Iran, for its part, noted the lack of support for Bashar al-Assad after the death of the leader of Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, who had come to his aid. Also Tehran would undoubtedly be ready to negotiate with a new team, judges Gönul Tol.
Sinan Ülgen, associate researcher at the Carnegie Europe center in Ankara, asks: “if Russia and Iran still want to support Syria, do they still have the capacity?”
The Doha meeting could seal the fate of President Assad, experts say. With the maneuver, facing the Russian Minister Sergei Lavrov, the boss of Turkish diplomacy Hakan Fidan, loyal to the Head of State and former boss of the Turkish intelligence services.
“Hakan Fidan knows the Syrian issue, the terrain and above all all the actors: the States but also the armed groups and militias present,” assures Sinan Ülgen.
This week he notably received his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, who went to Ankara after a visit to Damascus.
Par Anne CHAON, AFP
