Only three months after his appointment to Matignon, Michel Barnier and his government were censored by deputies this Wednesday, December 4. This is the first time under the Fifth Republic that a motion of censure was successful, following recourse to article 49.3 of the Constitution. A previous motion of censure, this time spontaneous, triggered the resignation of Georges Pompidou in 1962.
And now ? The hand goes to Emmanuel Macron. The President of the Republic must now appoint a successor to the most short-lived prime minister in the history of the Fifth Republic.
If we draw up a composite portrait of the next tenant of Matignon, the new head of government will have to please both the National Rally, but also the socialists, to avoid reproducing the scenario of the motion of censure. A big ideological gap that’s hard to find.
Those who gravitate within the common base
Among the different hypotheses, Emmanuel Macron could choose to appoint Matignon an early supporter, namely François Bayrou. The MoDem mayor of Pau could find common ground with Marine Le Pen and her National Rally troops on the subject of proportional. Requested for many years by the party chaired by Jordan Bardella, this subject is also supported by the boss of MoDem. In an interview with Monde dating from August 2024, François Bayrou declared: “I see every day that this idea of proportionality is in everyone’s minds today. It is the only credible perspective for normalizing pluralism. It obliges all political forces to recognize the legitimacy, including of their adversaries. It is now inevitable, and fortunately, that this idea will gain ground.”
Another profile, another possibility: Sébastien Lecornu. The current Minister of the Armed Forces is a former member of the Republicans, involved alongside Emmanuel Macron since 2016. He also has the advantage of knowing Marine Le Pen. A few months ago, he had dinner with the former presidential candidate at Thierry Solère, Emmanuel Macron’s unofficial advisor. He also has the support of Brigitte Macron, with whom he speaks regularly.
Another name is also whispered in the corridors of the presidential palace. Roland Lescure is the former Minister Delegate for Industry and Energy. Currently, he is a member of the French people of North America. He has the advantage of being close to the influential secretary general of the Élysée.
And the others…
If these “candidates for candidacy” for Matignon are all close to the President of the Republic, their political proximity to the macronie could be difficult to satisfy the Assembly and the oppositions. Emmanuel Macron could then choose to stick with a prime minister from the ranks of the Republicans. The Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retailleau, is cited on the list of potential prime ministers. Notable downside: this could offend the macronie who already felt wronged by Michel Barnier. “It’s been 15 years since the Republicans have lost the elections and we’re offering them Matignon?”, an indignant Macronist MP told RTL.fr.
And the left? The Bernard Cazeneuve option could also emerge. But here again, the bet is not won. Within his own camp, the Socialist Party, Bernard Cazeneuve is not unanimous. Starting with the first secretary of the party Olivier Faure who this summer gave his support to Lucie Castets, the NFP candidate for Matignon.
This political situation being unique, some are even considering a return of… Michel Barnier to his post. A hypothesis swept aside by the principal concerned. “But what does that mean, if I fall tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, I can be found here (in Matignon, editor’s note) as if nothing had happened,” he said on December 3.
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