Iran: On the verge of an exploding barrel of discontent. By Hamid Enayat

Wave of executions and increased repression of political opponents

In recent days, the unprecedented intensification of executions in Iran has become one of the most alarming indicators of the political and social crisis shaking the country. Between November 25 and 28, 2023, 27 people were executed, or one person every three and a half hours. This repressive escalation highlights a flagrant violation of human rights and reflects the regime's growing fear of popular demonstrations. This article explores the reasons for these repressive measures, the impact of the economic and social crisis on the growing discontent, as well as the reactions of the international community.

A strategy of intimidation by increasing executions

Over the past week, the Iranian justice system has sentenced six political prisoners to death: Abolhassan Montazer, Pouya Ghobadi, Vahid Bani-Amirian, Babak Alipour, Ali-Akbar Daneshvarkar and Mohammad Taghavi. Accused of crimes such as “membership in the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran” and “armed insurrection,” these individuals were targeted after months of interrogation and torture. These convictions are clearly aimed at creating a climate of terror among the population and dissuading any political opposition.

By October, the frequency of executions was already at one person every four hours. Today, this pace has accelerated further. This phenomenon reflects less a judicial development than a desperate reaction by the regime to a critical situation, with the aim of preventing massive uprisings.

The economic crisis, a key factor in widespread discontent

The deep economic crisis gripping Iran is one of the main drivers of popular discontent and growing protests. During his last speech, the regime's new president Massoud Pezeshkian indirectly referred to this crisis by warning that its persistence could trigger large-scale demonstrations. However, he refrained from naming those responsible for this catastrophic situation, which plunged more than two thirds of the population below the poverty line.

Even state media can no longer hide the scale of the crisis. In its edition of November 25, 2023, the daily “Islamic Republic”headline: “Fear the revolution of the army of the hungry”and denounced: “Every day, the economic crisis gets worse, the poor get poorer, the rich get richer, and society is more and more overwhelmed by an arrogant and insensitive elite. »

In this context, the conditions seem to be ripe for even larger and more organized demonstrations. In response to this growing threat, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a speech to the Basij paramilitary forces on November 25, urged them to be ready to quell “riots” and “rioters.”

Executions as a tool of political repression

One of the regime's main strategies to stifle protests is to increase death sentences targeting supporters of the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran and other political opponents. In a recent report, Professor Javaid Rehman, the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights in Iran, described two major waves of political massacres — in 1982 and 1988 — as real “genocides”. According to him, during the 1988 massacre, in which 90% of the victims were members of the People's Mojahedin, the regime executed its opponents solely because of their political, ethnic or religious beliefs.

Since 2019, the Iranian government has intensified death sentences targeting Mujahideen sympathizers. As potential protests approach, the regime appears to be stepping up its efforts to crack down on political prisoners, hoping to hamper protest movements. According to recent reports, more than 3,600 family members and supporters of the Mujahideen have been arrested. Their identities were transmitted to the United Nations by the Iranian opposition in order to protect them.

International reactions: calls for action and condemnations

On November 20, 2023, the United Nations adopted its 71st resolution against the Iranian regime in response to serious and systematic human rights violations. Maryam Rajavi, President of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), welcomed the resolution and urged the international community to take stronger measures. She said: “The increase in human rights violations and the regime's disregard for United Nations resolutions require a referral to the Security Council and a reckoning by Iranian leaders. »

She also called on European countries to condition their diplomatic and trade relations with Iran on an immediate halt to executions and to actively support human rights in the country.

Conclusion: Iran at a decisive turning point

The escalation of executions, the worsening economic crisis and the intensification of popular discontent reveal the state of desperation of the Iranian regime. Although the regime attempts to preserve its power through brutal repression, these actions instead appear to exacerbate frustrations and incite more protests.

In this context, the international community plays a crucial role. It must support human rights in Iran, pressure the regime to end its policy of repression and executions, and encourage a transition to justice and freedom. Iran's future rests both on the ability of its people to resist and on the world's determination to demand accountability for human rights crimes.

© Hamid Enayat

Political scientist, specialist on Iran, Hamid Enayat is in TJ the voice of the Iranian democratic opposition (NCRI).

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