SIf the motion of censure is voted on – as planned – on Wednesday afternoon or Thursday, the social security budget but also the 2025 state budget will end up directly in the trash. Everyone agrees: in this almost unprecedented scenario, the budget voted on last year should be renewed identically.
Certain sectors of activity or certain economic actors, if they do not rejoice publicly because the political situation in France does not allow them to express any satisfaction, can, deep down, say to themselves that they have narrow escape… at least, for now. Others say the opposite, taking into account what they will lose in the announced fall of the Barnier government. Review of the winners and losers of the announced death of the PLFSS and the PLF 2025.
They can (secretly) rejoice
Large French companies
With the “exceptional contribution” on the profits of large companies, the Barnier government hoped to recover 8 billion euros in 2025. Then, 4 billion in 2026. Targeted at the approximately 450 companies generating more than a billion euros in turnover business in France, this tax took the form of an increase in corporate tax, the rate of which would have been reduced by half in 2026 before disappearing. More generally, the PLFSS also provided for a reduction in social exemptions from which companies benefit, which would have increased the cost of labor for some employees.
The wealthiest households
The approximately 65,000 wealthiest tax households (i.e. 0.3% of the total) earning more than 250,000 euros per year for a single person had to pay a surcharge for three years.
Retirees
They are the big winners from the fall of Barnier, who falls for having refused to give in to Marine Le Pen on the question of the partial under-indexation of pensions. The text in fact provided for an increase of 0.8% for all retirees on 1is January, i.e. half of the expected inflation, and a second wave of revaluation of 0.8% on 1is July for only retirees below the minimum wage. In the absence of PLFSS, the 17 million French retirees will see their pensions increased at the rate of inflation at the start of 2025.
Shipping carriers
The budget contained an “exceptional contribution to the operating results of large maritime transport companies with a turnover of more than one billion euros. » A contribution which in fact only affected one company… the main French shipowner, CMA CGM, owned by the Saadé family. The contribution of the Marseille company was to amount to 500 million euros in 2025 and 300 million in 2026.
Airlines
The solidarity tax on plane tickets which was to apply from 1is January 2025 and bring in 150 million euros, as well as the passenger air transport tax for 850 million euros, fall with the budget. The profession, through the voice of Pascal de Izaguirre, CEO of Corsair, and president of the National Federation of Aviation and its Trades (FNAM), had continued to scream against this measure for which “theThe government has not carried out impact studies. […] It is estimated that the increase in this tax threatens 11,500 jobs in the airline sector ».
Online sports betting and poker operators
The strengthening of the taxation of certain games of money and chance, with the exception of horse racing betting, had been provided for in the Social Security financing bill for 2025. The text provided that the levy on the gross product of games (PBJ) increased from 10.6% to 15% for online sports betting. Afjel (French Online Gaming Association) never stopped “worrying” about the consequences of this project “to drastically increase taxes on the legal online gaming sector”.
They can (publicly) to have regrets
The army and defense industries
In a long message posted on the protection of our fellow citizens, by preventing the proposed increase of 3.3 billion euros for our defense budget. It would have very concrete consequences for our armies, but also more broadly for our French defense manufacturers: more than 200,000 jobs in more than 4,000 companies throughout our territories. » With 50.5 billion euros (i.e. 2% of GDP) for the defense budget, the PLF thus respected the increase provided for by the military programming law (LPM), which covers the period from 2024 to 2030. The ministry’s workforce was to be reinforced with 700 positions created.
Farmers
To Discover
Kangaroo of the day
Answer
The PLF included several tax relief measures for farmers as well as a system for the transfer of agricultural structures. The shortfall for the State was estimated at 394 billion euros by the Ministry of Agriculture. The abandonment of the increase in taxation on agricultural diesel, which had fueled discontent and been at the heart of the demonstrations, was thus ratified. The PLFSS notably included the reform of the calculation of farmers’ pensions on the basis of the best 25 years.
Housing professionals
The 2025 budget set itself the objective of reviving the housing market. The senators had approved, for example, an exemption from certain inheritance taxes, when the donation aims to acquire, build a home or renovate a home. The Upper House also adopted the return of the zero-interest loan (PTZ), which helps first-time buyers whose income does not exceed a certain ceiling to finance their first real estate purchase, throughout the country.
