The “only real” security guarantee for Ukraine is “full” membership in NATO, Ukrainian diplomacy recalled on Tuesday. This accession would constitute an “unacceptable” threat to Russia, replied the Kremlin.
Very cautiously, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte simply reiterated the Alliance’s principled position. The process leading to Ukraine’s accession is “irreversible”, he reminded the press, without however mentioning a timetable.
However, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriï Sybiga intends to reiterate this message during a working dinner in Brussels with his 32 NATO colleagues, with no illusions about the chances of being heard this week.
Ukraine wants to approach a possible peace negotiation with Russia from a position of strength and with sufficient security guarantees. And for her, an invitation to join NATO is by far the best guarantee against Russia.
Several Alliance countries, led by the United States, are however reluctant to make this “monumental decision”, as a diplomat in Brussels described it.
U.S. officials privately acknowledge that such an invitation is unlikely to be issued just weeks before the start of the new Trump presidency.
“Such a gesture before the arrival of the new administration would infuriate Trump and he would immediately take the opposite view,” recognizes a European NATO diplomat.
This decision will take time and the subject will only really be raised next year, before the Alliance summit scheduled for the end of June in The Hague, believes another.
But until then, it is essential to think about the guarantees that NATO, or at least some of its members, could give to Ukraine, particularly at a time when the prospect of peace negotiations seems closer, according to this source. .
Donald Trump has promised to make peace in Ukraine “in 24 hours” but without really saying how he intends to go about it.
European NATO countries fear being left out of a possible negotiation and several of them are looking for ways to secure a place at the table, NATO diplomats said .
“The front is moving from east to west”
And some of these countries do not rule out sending troops to Ukrainian soil, for example to monitor the establishment of a possible ceasefire, these diplomats indicated. However, they immediately point out, this discussion does not take place within NATO, but between European allies. The subject will therefore not be on the agenda on Tuesday or Wednesday, the second day of this ministerial meeting at NATO headquarters.
“The meeting will focus on how to ensure that Ukraine, when it decides to enter into negotiations, does so from a position of strength,” Rutte assured Tuesday.
Because, he stressed, “the front moves from east to west, and not from west to east”. The Russian army again claimed on Tuesday the conquest of two villages in the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk (east) and Zaporizhia (south), where its troops, more numerous than those of kyiv, are on the offensive and gaining ground on the entire front at a speed not seen since March 2022.
“Russia does not give gifts. And we can only guarantee peace by force: the force of our weapons, our diplomacy and our cooperation,” urged Mr. Zelensky on Monday in kyiv, alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Washington announced on Monday additional military aid for Ukraine, valued at $725 million and including missiles and anti-personnel mines, according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
During a NATO meeting last week in Brussels, Ukraine demanded anti-aircraft defense systems capable of protecting it from the new Russian Orechnik ballistic missile launched by Moscow.
These systems include the American THAAD or the Arrow system developed by the United States and Israel.
