This Monday marks the first day of a week of very high risk for the government of Michel Barnier, which could be overthrown three months after its constitution.
– At 3 p.m.the National Assembly will examine a motion for prior rejection of the Social Security budget, tabled by the Socialists, said Jérôme Guedj this Sunday. If it is passed, it would send the text back to the Senate, which would effectively grant a reprieve to the Prime Minister if it is adopted. The government will thus have “until Thursday midnight” to “do what it did not want to do in the two preceding months”, detailed Jérôme Guedj on BFMTV.
– If it is rejected, immediately, the National Assembly will debate the text resulting from the Joint Joint Commission (CMP) on the Social Security Financing Bill. Michel Barnier would then have two possibilities: let the deputies vote, at the risk – very high – of the text being rejected. Or trigger article 49.3 allowing the text to be adopted without a vote, but effectively engaging the government's responsibility. With the speeches of the various group presidents, Michel Barnier's decision should be known around 6 p.m. at the latest.
– If Michel Barnier triggers article 49.3, then a motion of censure should probably be examined by the National Assembly from 6 p.m. Wednesday. A motion that the National Rally says it is ready to vote on “barring a last minute miracle”. For its part, the government “remains open to dialogue but it takes two,” explains the spokesperson.
