Guest of Good Morning Business this Monday, the president of the Energy Regulatory Commission deciphered recent and future developments in electricity prices.
How much will the French electricity bill be in 2025? As Michel Barnier announced before the weekend, it should fall by 14% instead of 9% for the 80% of households who have subscribed to the regulated rate or to an offer indexed to it. Indeed, the government has finally decided to give up significantly increasing the domestic tax on final electricity consumption (TICFE) which, combined with VAT, represents a third of the household electricity bill. If the arbitrations to determine the exact increase in the TICFE on February 1st must still be carried out, the president of the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) welcomes the decision of the executive:
“On taxes, we can still be pleased that the government has said that it will not increase them too much,” declared Emmanuelle Wargon on the set of BFM Business.
While they were between 40 and 50 euros per MWh before the energy crisis, electricity prices jumped in 2022 to peak at 1,000 euros per MWh at the height of the crisis. “Today, prices are stabilizing between 65 and 70 euros per MWh, notes Emmanuelle Wargon. Future prices for electricity delivered in 2027 or 2028 are around 65 euros per MWh. Unless there is a black sign or new disaster, prices should remain in this zone.”
Towards an increase in network prices on February 1?
On the other hand, the reduction in the French bill thanks to the decline in market prices could still be less than announced despite the government's retreat on the increase in the TICFE. Indeed, Emmanuelle Wargon recalls that the CRE recently gave itself the possibility of reviewing the tariff for use of the public electricity network (TURPE) on February 1st while it traditionally changes every August 1st. The objective of the Energy Regulatory Commission is in particular to smooth the evolution of the French bill and to avoid a “yo-yo” effect.
“The arbitration has not yet been made, we will make our decision at the end of December or the beginning of January,” she adds while an increase in TURPE is anticipated.
On the subject of companies, the president of the CRE confirms a “difficult” negotiation between EDF and the electro-intensives although “a certain number of letters of intent have been signed”.
Regarding companies in general, Emmanuelle Wargon indicates that they can now take advantage of the development of the supplier market to “negotiate 2-3 year contracts which allow them to have a certain visibility”. According to the former minister, the last companies to suffer from the surge in prices during the energy crisis will soon see their contracts expire and will be able to sign a new one under more advantageous conditions.
