Putin escalates the rhetoric of “global” conflict. Despite the use of a new missile, the direct threat against Europe, and therefore Brussels, remains improbable.
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While a NATO-Ukraine meeting takes place this Tuesday, November 26, the tensions of recent days in the conflict between kyiv and Moscow are heightened by the launch of a very specific missile. And threatening words from President Vladimir Putin. But is there a real danger for us?
A “global” conflict
While Putin now speaks of a “global” conflict, tension has risen in recent days, with particular concern from NATO. “Despite all the comments and everything we’ve seen, things haven’t changed that much. Globalizing the conflict has been Russia’s desire from the start: to say that from the moment there is support for Ukraine, those who support it are against them. The most significant thing is to see that after the supply of weapons that could reach Russian territory, they immediately showed their teeth and indicated that they had particularly important technical means with the symbolism of having used a missile which could carry a nuclear charge but which it did not”, explains Tanguy de Wilde, lawyer and professor of geopolitics and international relations at UCL.
The Orechnik missile used by the Russian army symbolically reignited the fire, with a very clear message from Putin: they can attack other countries, particularly European ones, because of their aid to Ukraine. “There is no a priori greater risk of an extension of the conflict than previously.” Could Brussels be potentially threatened? “With the headquarters of NATO and the European Union, it is a target in the event of widespread conflict. But we are not in this situation. The line of defense is further away today. This is in the case of a total global conflict where missiles would be launched from all sides. But this does not correspond to what Putin wants: he wants to neutralize Ukraine, and take over territories, but he has not said that he is going to attack the West.”
Negotiations soon?
So don’t panic. The probability that Putin will decide to attack our country is not plausible in the near future. “Each party is perhaps trying to achieve success or gain territory in the perspective of what seems to be emerging, i.e. negotiations in 2025.”, analysis Tanguy de Wilde.
Discussions are not clauses, and may eventually lead to results. “There are negotiations for prisoner exchanges, and previous negotiations that did not work. So, we are not in a total break.”
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