The fear of a nuclear conflict resurfaces the debate on anti-atomic shelters. Does France have enough to protect its population? Unless deterrence protects it from attack
In France, there was the effect of peace dividends on arms production. Will there be a “deterrence” effect on the capacities of underground shelters intended to protect the population in the event of a nuclear armed conflict?
Since February 24, 2022, the day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a nuclear conflict has become possible. This fear was reinforced on November 19 with a decree allowing Moscow a use of nuclear weapons in the event of a massive attack on its territory. With this change in nuclear doctrine, Vladimir Putin is putting pressure on NATO member countries which are preparing for a possible nuclear attack targeting one of the strategic targets or an attack on a nuclear power plant.
Faced with such a risk, other European countries have put themselves on alert. The German authorities have just decided to list the bunkers and shelters where the 83 million Germans could find refuge in the event of an attack. Germany currently has 579 bunkers, most dating from World War II and the Cold War era. They can only accommodate 480,000 people. Citizens will also be encouraged to create shelters in their homes, by converting their cellars or garages.
Among the public, this apocalyptic nightmare was reinforced by Nuke Map, an anxiety-provoking site which simulates the effects of the impact of a nuclear weapon explosion, depending on its power. This frightening news revives the question of nuclear shelters in France. Where are they, how many there are, who are they for, how to get there, who is responsible for them?
“Nuclear deterrence to prevent war”.
In 2023, Olivier Paccaud, senator from Oise, questioned Sébastien Lecornu, Minister of the Armed Forces on “the low capacity of underground shelters intended to protect the population in the event of a nuclear armed conflict”.
“In 2017, France had barely a thousand shelters on its soil, most of them built in the 1980s,” noted the senator, recalling that “600 of these structures were of a military nature and around 400 others were shelters. private civilians.
“Related to the population, these figures give our country a remarkably low protection rate against nuclear risk since it is barely above 0%!”, justified Olivier Paccaud.
Élisabeth Borne, at the time Prime Minister, responded to him.
“Since 1964, nuclear deterrence has permanently protected France from any threat of aggression of state origin against its vital interests, whatever its form,” explained Elisabeth Borne, affirming that “nuclear deterrence aims to prevent war “.
The FAS and the SSBNs
France no longer has the famous triad which represents the three means of launching a nuclear weapon. The land component is no longer, but remains the Strategic Air Forces (FAS) created in 1964, naval deterrence via nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) which permanently patrol the seas and oceans and the force nuclear naval aviation (FANU) third strategic component of deterrence.
In the event of an accident in a nuclear power plant, the Prime Minister recalled that measures are planned, including the evacuation of exposed populations. On the number of shelters and the conditions required to get there, no response was provided to Olivier Paccaud.
And if some believe that the bunkers from the Second World War could serve as shelters, they will first have to be renovated. Furthermore, the Atlantic Wall is located on 4,400 km of our west coast.
In Russia, chain shelters
Switzerland remains one of the most cautious countries. It has 360,000 shelters spread across the country. In addition to those installed in public buildings (schools, town halls, businesses, etc.), we also find them in apartment buildings or individual houses. The entire population of 8.6 million would have a place there.
Even Russia has gone to great lengths to protect the inhabitants. At the beginning of the year, the Research Institute of the Ministry of Emergency Situations launched serial production of “KUB-M”. These are mobile anti-atomic shelters capable of accommodating around fifty people.
“The basic configuration of the 'KUB-M' includes two blocks (…) with additional modules,” explains the independent Ukrainian media Ukraine Front Line.
According to Reuters, the Kremlin did not link the decision to any current crisis, although the announcement came days after the administration of US President Joe Biden agreed to allow Ukraine to fire US missiles long-range deep over Russia. This decision was described as reckless by the Kremlin, which in response evolved its nuclear doctrine.
