This is not written in black and white in the official program of the National Rally, but Jean-Philippe Tanguy, responsible for defining the economic program of the far-right party, has nevertheless made it a new campaign promise: to cancel the average increase of 11.7% in the gas bill, effective since Monday, July 1 for millions of French people. A measure also advocated by the New Popular Front (NFP).
Legislative: the “energy” measures of the RN and the New Popular Front examined closely
This increase had been announced for months, but its implementation, specified on June 10, the day after the European elections, disrupted the political calendar and inflamed the lightning campaign for the early legislative elections, largely marked by the question of purchasing power.
Asked on Sunday evening about - After the current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced the suspension of the unemployment insurance reform, Jean-Philippe Tanguy reacted by also requesting the cancellation of the increase in the gas bill. We asked for it. And if the French trust us, we will cancel it. ” he assured on public radio.
Reinstating a regulated gas sales tariff would be illegal
But can the National Rally really cancel this increase in the gas bill? He has no room for maneuver “, says Nicolas Goldberg, energy expert at Colombus Consulting. First of all, ” It should be kept in mind that this is the benchmark price for gas defined by the CRE [la commission de régulation de l’énergie, ndlr] which increases on July 1st. This is in no way the regulated gas tariff, which disappeared in July 2023 “, recalls Maxime de La Raudière, deputy general manager of the comparator Selectra. This is an indicative price that provides information to consumers. There is nothing regulatoryadds Jacques Percebois, an economist specializing in energy markets. Every month, the energy regulator says ‘taking into account the price of gas on the international market, this is the price you could negotiate with your supplier’ “, he adds.
In other words, the public authorities no longer set gas prices. And the National Rally will not be able to reinstate a regulated gas sales tariff (TRV). Indeed, in a decision of 19 July 2017, the Council of State ruled that maintaining this TRV was contrary to European Union law.
A rising price on the wholesale market
Suppliers are therefore free to set the prices they wish independently of this benchmark price. However, unless a very costly tariff shield is put in place for taxpayers, the latter will probably pass on this development given the price increase observed since the beginning of the year on the wholesale markets, where suppliers negotiate and purchase their gas supply before marketing it on the retail market. “The Dutch TTF futures contract, [référence du gaz naturel en Europe, ndlr] was, at the beginning of the year, at 25 euros per megawatt hour. Today it is at 35 euros”specifies Jacques Percebois.
This increase in the price on the wholesale market is explained in particular by the fact that Asian demand is on the rise again. But also by the fact that Europe is now mainly supplied by liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported by sea, which is more expensive than gas imported by pipeline. Especially since LNG carriers are now going around Africa to avoid the Suez Canal. Last factor: the persistence of a technical problem which limits exports from Norway. The increase in the benchmark price is thus explained 40% by the increase in the price of the molecule on a global scale. However, the National Rally has no room for maneuver on the price of this market. ” explains Jacques Percebois.
Blocking the rise in network costs, a risky bet
However, the far-right party could pull another lever. Indeed, the increase in the benchmark gas price is also due, and mainly (by 60%), to the significant revaluation for the next four years of the gas transmission costs borne by the distribution network manager GRDF. A revaluation that can be adjusted by the energy regulator every year, in July, to take into account economic factors. However, this cost had initially been underestimated in 2020 during the Covid crisis and had not been readjusted in the summer of 2022 because the price of the gas molecule had soared due to the war in Ukraine, recalls Jacques Percebois. Two factors that explain a strong catch-up effect today. Furthermore, the unit cost increases mechanically since network costs remain fixed while gas consumption decreases.
The National Rally could therefore decide not to follow the recommendations of the energy regulator and block this increase in the cost of transporting gas, which suppliers must pay. Suppliers would therefore not pass on new costs in their offers intended for individuals. But here again, this approach comes up against a major limitation: who would pay for the investments necessary to maintain the gas distribution network and adapt it to accommodate green gas? And this when it is necessary to ” connect more and more biogas production units, scattered across the territory and sometimes far from the network “, notes Jacques Percebois.
Playing on taxes… to the detriment of taxpayers!
The last solution to play on the price of gas to which households are exposed: lower the level of taxes, which constitute the third component of the bill, after the cost of the molecule and the cost of the networks. This is also the flagship measure of the National Rally: lowering VAT on energy to 5.5%, instead of the 20% currently in force.
« In concrete terms, this would result in a drop in the price of a kilowatt hour of more than 10%. It would go from 10.26 cents to 9.02 cents. “, explains Maxime de La Raudière. For a household consuming natural gas, this would represent an average saving of 125 euros per year, estimates Sélectra. ” Which would almost completely cancel out the increase in the benchmark price. “, points out its deputy general manager. On the other hand, the cost to the taxpayer would amount to 2.3 billion euros just for the reduction in VAT on gas, according to Bercy’s calculations. And this, ” even though we are emerging from an energy crisis during which individuals were protected by a tariff shield at an exorbitant cost “, points out Selectra. Finally, a general reduction in VAT on energy, including on fuels, would be contrary to the European directive of 2006.
Legislative: can the RN really lower VAT to 5.5% on fuel and energy prices?
