The evening of the first round of the legislative elections was difficult for the majority, which came third behind the National Rally (RN) and the New Popular Front (NFP). It was also difficult for the members of the government, even if some should do well thanks to the withdrawal of the left in the context of three-way contests or because they are in a “golden” constituency.
This is the case of the Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal. Candidate in the 10th constituency of Hauts-de-Seine, he largely qualified for the second round (43.8%) against the socialist Cécile Soubelet (35.5%). Coming third, the LR-RN candidate did not qualify for the second round, enough to leave the outgoing Prime Minister optimistic.
Hauts-de-Seine, stronghold of the presidential camp
In the 8th constituency of the same department, the government spokesperson Prisca Thevenot should also be re-elected after a good first round (39.9%) against the left and the absence of a three-way race. In the 9th constituency, Stephane Sejournethe Minister of Foreign Affairs, has successfully parachuted in. He came out on top in the first round with 46% of the vote and will face the left-wing candidate, who came in far behind (21%) while benefiting from reserves of votes on the right. Hauts-de-Seine confirms its status as a stronghold of the presidential camp.
Yvelines is the other department favorable to the Macron camp. The outgoing Minister of Relations with Parliament, Marie Lebechas a large lead (41%) in a three-way race against the candidates of the left and LR, the latter being supported by the RN.
In the same department, the situation is favourable for the Minister for Equality between Women and Men, Aurore Bergéafter a first round in which he brought it to 33.6% She could benefit from a withdrawal of the candidate of the left, who came third, but her firm position on the three-way races, refusing any withdrawal in favor of LFI, could lead him to maintain his candidacy. Even in this scenario, she could however be re-elected.
In the second constituency, the Minister of European Affairs, Jean-Noel Barrotcame out on top by a wide margin (35%) in the first round and will be in a three-way race against the left and the RN in the second, with reserves of votes from LR.
Pour Roland LescureMinister of Industry and candidate in the 1st constituency of French people abroad which covers North America, the second round promises to be tricky but within his reach. Having come in first in the first round (38.8%), he will face in the second the candidate of the left who came just behind him (36.1%) but who no longer has any reserves of votes. Roland Lescure will be able to benefit from the votes of the LR candidate who came fourth (5.2%) and two small candidates, the great uncertainty for him being in the choice of the voters of the RN candidate, who came third but who cannot hold on.
In Paris, the Minister of Commerce and Crafts, Olivia Gregorycan be optimistic. In the 12th constituency, which covers part of the 7th and 15th arrondissements, she came out on top by a wide margin (39.4%) and has reserves of votes in a duel against the candidate of the left.
The second round looks set to be much more difficult for the Minister of Public Service, Stanislas Gueriniwho came second in the first round with 34% and found himself in a duel against a candidate from the left who achieved 46%. Widely elected in 2017, he was narrowly re-elected in 2022 and has reason to worry this year given the small reservoir of votes he has on the right.
In the 1st constituency of Gironde, the Minister of Public Accounts, Thomas Cazenavewho came out on top in the first round, will face the left, which he beat by 4 points, and the RN in a three-way race. This configuration should allow him to be re-elected, but the minister nonetheless intends to campaign all week.
In the 1st constituency of Savoie, the outgoing MP and Secretary of State for Digital Affairs, Marina Ferrariis neck and neck with the candidate supported by the RN, Typhanie Degois (herself a former deputy of the Republic on the Move, ex-Renaissance, between 2017 and 2022). The NFP candidate, who came third, is withdrawing.
The similar configuration for Gerald DarmaninThe outgoing Minister of the Interior narrowly came out on top against the RN (36% against 34%) and he should benefit in the second round from the withdrawal of the candidate of the left (LFI).
The second round looks set to be very difficult for the Minister of Local Authorities and Rural Affairs, Dominique Faure. Coming third in the first round behind the left and the RN, she announced that she would stay in the race but does not have any reserve votes. “This stay in the race is our best chance of consolidating our base around the Republican arc that I represent and which is by far the best choice for the 10th constituency. Leaving the two extremes face to face would be too risky,” she said on X (formerly Twitter).
Withdrawals to block the RN
The pill is bitter for the Minister of Overseas Territories, Marie Guevenouxin office for only six months. Coming in third place in the 9th constituency of Essonne, where she was elected in 2017 and re-elected in 2022, she announced her withdrawal in order to block the RN, whose candidate came in second place behind the left. She wanted to “do everything to make the candidates from the Republican arc win”.
Same situation for Sabrina Agresti-RoubacheThe Secretary of State for the City announced her withdrawal after coming third in the first constituency of Bouches-du-Rhône, where she was largely outdistanced by the RN and the left. “Failures happen, we never recover from dishonor,” she declared.
Same decision for the Minister for the Elderly and the Disabled, Fadila Khattabi. Having also come third in the 3rd constituency of Côte d’Or, she announced her withdrawal on Monday. “I got involved in politics in 2002, against Jean-Marie Le Pen, and the basis of my commitment has not changed. I distinguish my political adversaries from the enemies of the Republic,” she declared, calling for a vote for the NFP candidate.
The Minister of Health and member of Horizons, the party of Edouard Philippe, Frédéric Valletoux resisted the RN’s surge in his constituency, the 2nd of Seine-et-Marne. He will benefit from the withdrawal of the left-wing candidate, who came third, which she announced this Monday morning.
In the 5th constituency of the same department of Seine-et-Marne, the Minister of Foreign Trade, Franck Riestershould also benefit from the withdrawal of the left, which came third. But the gap he has to make up with the RN candidate Philippe Fontana, who came in well ahead, is much greater since he has reached 10 points.
Withdrawals on the left
In the 5th constituency of Loire-Atlantique, the Minister Delegate in charge of Youth, Sarah El Hairyfinds herself in a delicate three-way race. She came second, trailing the left-wing candidate Fabrice Roussel by just over 1 point, but the retention of the RN candidate, who came third, jeopardizes her chances of re-election.
In the 1st constituency of Loir-et-Cher, the Minister of Agriculture, Marc Fesneausees a duel against the RN looming in the second round. At the end of the first, he came second with 34.5% of the votes, one point behind the RN. However, he has significant reserves of votes on the left and the right.
The second round looks set to be much more difficult for Agnes Pannier-RunacherMinister Delegate to Marc Fesneau, in Pas-de-Calais, as this department has become a bastion of the RN. For her first candidacy for the deputy, she will have to fill up on votes on the left and count on the withdrawal of the NFP candidate (who has not yet announced it this Monday morning) after coming second in the first round, far behind the RN.
Candidate in the 1st constituency of Eure-et-Loir, the Minister in charge of Housing, Guillaume Kasbarian came neck and neck with the RN in the first round. He should benefit from the withdrawal of the left-wing candidate, who announced his withdrawal on Sunday evening “out of conviction”.
Coming in first with 33% of the votes in the 2nd constituency of Côtes d’Armor, the Secretary of State for the Sea, Hervé Bervilleshould also benefit from the withdrawal of the left, whose candidate came third and qualified for the second round. Coming third in the 1st constituency of Hérault, the Secretary of State for Veterans, Patricia Mirallèshas still not said whether she is withdrawing or not. With 22%, she finished far behind the far right and the left, making her election unlikely.
