The Bayern/PSG match this Tuesday evening will pit two teams who have already lost twice in four matches this season in the Champions League and who have a vital need for points to move up the standings and preserve their chances of seeing the next round.
Bayern Munich, 17th out of 36 in the Champions League standings with 6 points, faces PSG this Tuesday evening at home, 25th with 4 points and virtual first non-qualified for the play-offs. A match between two teams who dominate their championship, but who have already lost twice this season in the Champions League. The difference is that Bayern won their other two matches when PSG only beat Girona before drawing against PSV Eindhoven.
In the standings of this Champions League championship phase, every point counts and there are still 12 points to go for for each team. Before this Bayern/PSG match, the result of which will be very important for both teams, but not yet eliminatory, even in the event of defeat, we were interested in the different possible scenarios and their consequences in the ranking for PSG.
Scenario 1: PSG wins against Bayern
Currently 25th in the standings with 4 points and -2 goal average, PSG would have 7 points in the event of a victory against Bayern and a goal average of -1 in the event that they only win by a goal difference. In the worst-case scenario, PSG would only gain one place in the standings and would only surpass Bayern, which would still allow PSG to be 24th and virtually a barrier.
But in the best case scenario, with several teams currently ranked higher than PSG who would lose while PSG wins, Luis Enrique's gang could move from 25th to 12th place in the standings. Among the teams that PSG can catch up with in the event of a victory, 4 face each other: Manchester City (10th) with 7 points vs Feyenoord (21st) with 6 points, as well as Celtic (15th) with 7 points vs Club Bruges (22nd). ) with 6 points. If PSG wins, it will not be able to overtake these four teams at the same time, but only two of them at best.
To summarize : if PSG wins, it will be 24th at worst, 12th at best.
Scenario 2: PSG draws against Bayern
PSG would then have 5 points and still -2 goal average. At best, it would remain 25th because PSV, the only team with 5 points currently, will face Shakhtar, who have 4 points. If PSV wins, it will remain ahead of PSG with 8 points. If PSV draws, they will still be ahead of PSG with 6 points. And if PSV loses, it would already have to lose heavily for PSG to overtake it in goal average since PSV currently has +2 while PSG would remain stuck at -2 goal average in the event of a draw. But even if PSV were to lose 5-0 and fall behind PSG on goal average, Shakhtar would then pass PSG with 7 points, which would therefore leave PSG in 25th place.
At worst, in the event of a draw, PSG could fall back to 30th place if their pursuers who have 4 or 3 points were to win.
To summarize : if PSG draws, it will be at worst 30th, at best 25th.
Scenario 3: PSG loses against Bayern
This is obviously the worst possible scenario. But in this catastrophic scenario, PSG could in the best case remain 25th and therefore not lose any place, provided that none of its pursuers take points. And in the event of a defeat against Bayern, they will have to lose by less than their pursuers to avoid falling behind teams with 4 points on goal average. Basically, avoiding sinking in Munich will always be beneficial in the standings.
In the worst case scenario, in the event of a defeat in Munich, PSG could fall to a worrying 31st place. Five teams currently have 0 points and will remain behind PSG whatever happens at the end of the 5th day, but Bologna, currently 31st with 1 point and -5 goal average, can potentially move ahead of PSG in the event of a victory at home against Lille and defeat of PSG in Munich. Bologna and PSG would then be on 4 points and the goal difference would decide between them.
To summarize : if PSG loses, they will be 31st at worst, 25th at best.
