2024 Legislative Elections: Can Emmanuel Macron Still Succeed in His Bet? “He Can Land Back on His Feet”

The first round of the legislative elections came to an end this Sunday, June 30, 2024 at 8 p.m. Since then, the results have been trickling in and according to initial estimates, it is the National Rally which emerges victorious with a little more than 33% of the votes cast.

At a good distance, we find, in second position, the New Popular Front, the union of the left, which obtains, for its part, almost 28%. Behind, it is the presidential party which is not that far with around 20%. Suffice to say that Jordan Bardella’s party has a head start, but nothing is decided yet. Most of what you need to remember can be found at this address.

To decipher this first deadline, -.fr spoke with Virginie Martin, political scientist and professor-researcher at Kedge Business School.

- : Is the National Rally the big winner of this first round?

Virginie Martin: On the RN side, we are clearly in a dynamic. They did better than in the European elections (31.47%) while participation was very high (more or less 65%). Which further legitimizes this result. There is an undeniable push from the National Rally.

What do the results tell us about the left?

V.M. : I am a little surprised by the reading that is made of it. If we add up all their percentages with the Europeans – we rarely compare, but 15 days apart, it really says something – they should have exceeded 31%. Here, they are rather below 30. There is no real dynamic. As if the LFI question had slowed everything down. We can perhaps hypothesize that the same team without LFI would certainly have produced something better.

The majority are doing pretty well, aren’t they?

V.M. : Yes, there is good momentum in the majority. They are progressing compared to the European elections by 6 to 8 points. For a presidential party that we thought was almost dead in the European elections, we see here that it is resisting well and even that it is not falling below 20%. The jump of 7 points is significant compared to the European elections. And this, while we were talking about a vote “against Macron”. Like what Gabriel Attal said in his speech, Ensemble still sees itself as the builders of a future majority. Even if it is relative.

“What will come out of this is perhaps the confirmation of the three blocs, without a majority”

Concretely, where are we after this first round?

V.M. : We are in a somewhat complex dance with a hierarchy of forces: the RN as the very great enemy, because we imagine it capable of having a majority. Then comes the NFP, but since there is LFI, I do not see them obtaining an absolute majority. And finally, in a small mouse hole, there is the possibility of a Prime Minister from a central bloc who would have succeeded in uniting something credible around him. A large coalition around the parties that Emmanuel Macron considers “republican”. It is very complicated. Everything is in the thickness of the line. What will come out of there is perhaps a confirmation of three blocs without an absolute majority.

Can we already imagine who will be Prime Minister?

V.M. : Without an absolute majority, it seems complicated. Jordan Bardella does not want to go there. So perhaps a somewhat neutral figure, who would be responsible for bringing people together? Why not Raphaël Glucksmann, from Place Publique, or Aurélien Pradié, who has just handed in his LR card? In any case, candidates who are “republicans”, in the first sense of the term, and who are not too affiliated with their original party.

Because Jordan Bardella could refuse the post of Prime Minister?

V.M. : It would be ungovernable. He would risk a motion of censure and could be overthrown within a month.

If the RN does not have an absolute majority, Jordan Bardella does not take the post of Prime Minister. He said it himself.

Towards a new central government?

If there is no absolute majority, will Emmanuel Macron have won? And we can consider that he has succeeded in his dissolution.

V.M. : It is also and above all a gamble. If we make a bit of political fiction, that the bet works and that there is no party with an absolute majority the day after July 7, there, Emmanuel Macron will propose to one of the representatives of the group which has the most of deputies to be appointed Prime Minister. Presumably, Jordan Bardella will refuse. From there, he will certainly summon the presidents of the parties that he considers republican, therefore, and will propose a grand coalition to them. A bit like what is done in Denmark or Germany.

Which would explain the government’s strategy of talking about “the” extremes when La France Insoumise is not far left, as the Council of State points out.

V.M. : When faced with two blocs considered extreme, people say to themselves “I don’t want either one”, and in this political chaos, Emmanuel Macron and this central bloc appear to be a “reasonable” party. And we talk less about the record. “I erase the left-right divide, there are only extremes expressing themselves and therefore I am always the reasonable recourse.”
It is possible to imagine, once again, a government of the center and of “neither nor”. And Emmanuel Macron would land on his feet.

The first round has not yet delivered its verdict.

But this is political fiction.

V.M. : The first round has not yet given its verdict. Beware of the negotiations this week which will be decisive. And then, it is possible that the NFP remains strong. With La France Insoumise.

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