Russia gives North Korea a million barrels of oil

Russia has reportedly supplied North Korea with more than 1 million barrels of oil since March of this year, according to an analysis of satellite images by the Open Source Center, a nonprofit research group. based in the UK.

That oil is used to pay for the weapons and troops Pyongyang has sent to Moscow to fuel its war in Ukraine, leading experts and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy told the BBC.

The transfers violate United Nations sanctions, which prohibit countries from selling oil to North Korea except in small quantities, in an effort to stifle its economy and prevent it from continuing to develop nuclear weapons.

Satellite images, released exclusively to the BBC, show more than a dozen different North Korean tankers arriving at an oil terminal in Russia's Far East on 43 occasions over the past eight months.

Other images, taken from ships at sea, appear to show tankers arriving empty and leaving almost full.

North Korea is the only country in the world not allowed to buy oil on the open market. The number of barrels of refined oil it can receive is capped by the United Nations at 500,000 per year, which is far below its needs.

The Russian Foreign Ministry did not respond to our request for comment.

The first oil transfer documented by the Open Source Center in a new report took place on March 7, 2024, seven months after it was revealed that Pyongyang was sending weapons to Moscow.

The transfers continued as thousands of North Korean troops were reportedly sent to Russia to fight, with the last transfer recorded on November 5.

“While Kim Jong Un is providing Vladimir Putin with a lifeline to continue his war, Russia is quietly providing North Korea with its own lifeline,” says Joe Byrne of the Open Source Center.

“This steady flow of oil gives North Korea a level of stability it has not experienced since the introduction of these sanctions.”

Four former members of a United Nations working group monitoring the implementation of sanctions against North Korea told the BBC that the transfers were a consequence of growing ties between Moscow and Pyongyang.

“These transfers fuel Putin's war machine – it's oil for missiles, oil for artillery and now oil for soldiers,” says Hugh Griffiths, who led the group from 2014 to 2019.

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy told the BBC: “To continue fighting in Ukraine, Russia has become increasingly dependent on North Korea for troops and weapons in oil exchange. »

He added that this had “a direct impact on security on the Korean Peninsula, Europe and the Indo-Pacific region.”

While most people in North Korea rely on coal for their daily lives, oil is essential to the functioning of the country's military. Diesel and gasoline are used to transport missile launchers and troops across the country, to operate munitions factories and to fuel the cars of Pyongyang's elite.

The 500,000 barrels that North Korea is allowed to receive falls far short of the nine million it consumes, meaning that since the cap was introduced in 2017, the country has been forced to buy oil on a massive scale. illicit from criminal networks to fill this deficit.

This involves transferring the oil between ships at sea – a risky, expensive and time-consuming activity, according to Dr Go Myong-hyun, a senior researcher at South Korea's Institute for National Security Strategy, which is linked to the country's spy agency.

“Now Kim Jong Un gets oil directly, probably of better quality, and there is a good chance that he will get it for free, in return for the supply of ammunition. What's better than that? »

“A million barrels is nothing for a major oil producer like Russia, but it is a substantial amount for North Korea,” Mr. Go added.

In the 43 journeys tracked by the Open Source Center using satellite imagery, the North Korean-flagged tankers arrived at the Russian port of Vostochny with their trackers turned off, concealing their movements.

The images show that they then reached one of the four ports located on the east and west coasts of North Korea.

“Ships appear silently, almost every week,” says Joe Byrne, a researcher at the Open Source Center. “Since March, the flow has been relatively constant. »

The team, which has been tracking these tankers since the introduction of oil sanctions, used their knowledge of each vessel's capacity to calculate how many barrels of oil they can carry.

They then studied footage of ships entering and leaving Vostochny and, in most cases, were able to see how low in the water they were and, therefore, how full they were.

According to them, the tankers were loaded to 90% of their capacity.

“We can see in some images that if the ships were fuller they would sink,” says Mr Byrne.

Based on this, they calculate that since March, Russia has supplied North Korea with more than a million barrels of oil, more than double the annual cap and about ten times the amount Moscow officially gave Pyongyang in 2023.

This follows a US government assessment in May that Moscow had already supplied more than 500,000 barrels of oil.

Cloud cover does not allow researchers to obtain a clear image of the port every day.

“The whole month of August was cloudy, so we couldn't document a single trip,” says Mr. Byrne, leading his team to believe that the million-barrel figure is a “number of reference”.

Not only do these oil shipments violate UN sanctions against North Korea, which Russia, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, approved, but more than half of the trips monitored by the Open Source Center were carried out by ships that were individually sanctioned by the UN.

This means that they should have been seized as soon as they entered Russian waters.

But in March 2024, three weeks after the first oil transfer was documented, Russia disbanded the UN panel monitoring sanctions violations, using its veto power in the UN Security Council united.

Ashley Hess, who worked on the panel until it disbanded, says they saw evidence that the transfers had begun.

“We were tracking some of the ships and companies involved, but our work was stopped, perhaps after the 500,000 barrel cap was exceeded.”

Eric Penton-Voak, who led the group from 2021 to 2023, claims that the group's Russian members attempted to censor its work.

“Now that the group no longer exists, they can just ignore the rules,” he adds. “The fact that Russia is now encouraging these ships to visit its ports and load oil shows a new level of contempt for these sanctions. »

But Mr. Penton-Voak, who sits on the board of the Open Source Center, thinks the problem goes much deeper.

“These autocratic regimes are increasingly working together to help each other achieve what they want and ignoring the wishes of the international community. »

This is an “increasingly dangerous” strategy, he says.

“The last thing we want is for a North Korean tactical nuclear weapon to end up in Iran, for example. »

As Kim Jong Un steps up his support for Vladimir Putin's war, concern is growing over what else he will get in return.

The United States and South Korea estimate that Pyongyang has now sent Moscow 16,000 containers filled with artillery shells and rockets, while remnants of exploded North Korean ballistic missiles have been recovered from the battlefield in Ukraine.

Most recently, Putin and Kim signed a defense pact, which led to thousands of North Korean troops being sent to Russia's Kursk region, where intelligence reports indicate they are now engaged in the battle.

The South Korean government told the BBC it would “respond severely to Russia and North Korea's violation of UN Security Council resolutions.”

His biggest worry is that Moscow will provide Pyongyang with the technology needed to improve its spy satellites and ballistic missiles.

Last month, Seoul's Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun said there was a “high chance” that North Korea would request such aid.

“If you send your people to die in a foreign war, a million barrels of oil is simply not enough reward,” says Dr. Go.

Andrei Lankov, an expert on North Korea-Russia relations at Kookmin University in Seoul, agrees.

“I used to think that it was not in Russia's interests to share military technology, but perhaps his calculus has changed. The Russians need these troops, which gives more leverage to the North Koreans.

Additional reporting by Josh Cheetham in London