Oil down, market weighs risks linked to conflict in Ukraine

Oil down, market weighs risks linked to conflict in Ukraine
Oil down, market weighs risks linked to conflict in Ukraine

London (awp/afp) – Oil prices hesitated on Friday, falling again after opening the session in the green, the market still assessing the possibility that Russian oil installations would be hit by Ukrainian shots, in a market surplus to 'offer.

Around 12:25 GMT (1:25 p.m. CET), a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in January lost 0.75% to $73.67.

Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery the same month, fell 0.88% to $69.48.

The Kremlin said Friday it was certain that the United States “understood” Vladimir Putin's message in his speech the day before, where he claimed responsibility for the firing against Ukraine of a new missile designed to carry a nuclear warhead .

He also said Moscow reserves the right to strike Western countries that allow Ukraine to use their weapons on Russian soil.

“No matter what usage limits the UK and US impose on Ukraine, what the market fears is accidental destruction of oil, gas or refining facilities,” emphasizes John Evans, analyst from PVM Energy, “which would cause long-term damage and also accelerate the spiral of war”.

But the market takes into account “the monthly drop in Chinese oil demand, a hesitant OPEC+” on a possible continuation of voluntary production reductions and “a raging American dollar”, which increases the cost of the barrel, explains the analyst.

Thus, “the combination of weak global demand and abundant supply” continues to push prices down, confirms Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote Bank.

In Iran, the situation is also tense, as the country announced on Friday that it was putting into service “new advanced centrifuges” as part of its nuclear program, in retaliation for the adoption in Vienna of a resolution reminding Tehran of its obligations. under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

On the gas side, “the arrival of cold weather in Europe aggravates the situation and the dependence, although less (since the start of the conflict, editor's note), of the continent on Russian gas remains a real problem”, underlines John Evans.

The Russian gas giant Gazprom also interrupted its deliveries to Austria last weekend, which is still very dependent on this supplier, amid contractual disputes.

On Thursday, the American government announced a series of sanctions which target in particular the financial arm of Gazprom, Gazprombank, as well as around fifty other Russian banking establishments in order to limit “access to the international financial system” and reduce the financing of the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

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