During the first debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the American president collapsed. So much so that the Democratic newspapers are wondering about the possibility of changing candidates. A boulevard for the re-election of Donald Trump? A recent study by George Mason University allows us to better understand the position of Americans on the swing states.
For the Democratic camp, the 2024 presidential elections have a very special flavor. Because it is not an electoral campaign that current President Joe Biden and his allies are leading, but rather a fight for the survival of the country. Indeed, for the Democratic camp, a re-election of Donald Trump would be a real ” existential threat to the survival of American democracy[1] “. It is also not insignificant if President Biden’s electoral campaign points out the numerous excesses caused by his Republican counterpart, whether it is the fact that he still does not accept the results of the last presidential elections or that he incited his supporters to storm the Capitol on January 6, 2021. But it seems that this campaign is increasingly struggling to find popular support, as Donald Trump’s popularity increases at the expense of that of Joe Biden . And this especially in the most important States, these famous swing states.
Of the swing states who lean towards Trump
If the votes of swings states were particularly important for the election of Joe Biden in 2020, these now seem to be turning against the Democratic candidate to favor his Republican opponent. According to a study conducted by The Washington Post et George Mason University[2]if the majority of the inhabitants of swing states consider that the survival of American democracy is an essential factor in their choice of vote, they also think that Donald Trump is better able to guarantee this survival than Joe Biden.
These results, collected from more than 3,500 Americans from swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and even Wisconsin, are rather alarming for the Democratic camp. For many, if the principle of “ survival of American democracy » seems a rather distant term, it is nevertheless the second reason which motivates them to choose (and it is also for this reason that they are described as decidersafter the main reason, the economy.
But this survival of democracy is approached differently depending on the camp.
The face-to-face of the two camps
According to this same study, 7 out of 10 of these deciders are convinced that Donald Trump will not accept another defeat in the upcoming presidential elections. 47% are even convinced that Trump will govern like a dictator if he were re-elected to the White House, compared to only 15% for Biden. And yet, despite all these results which seem to go clearly against the Republican candidate, a majority of deciders thinks that Donald Trump is a better option than his Democratic counterpart when it comes to protecting and surviving democracy in the United States (38% for Trump versus 29% for Biden).
Democracy then presents itself as a real subject of analysis to understand the future American elections. If 76% of Donald Trump’s supporters are not satisfied with the way American democracy works, this figure falls to 37% for Joe Biden’s supporters.
This also explains why a large majority of Trump supporters do not trust the American electoral system. As for the decidersonly 52% trust the presidential election process, once again showing the lack of confidence in an American democracy that is struggling to recover.
[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/26/biden-trump-swing-state-poll-democracy/
[2]Link to report: https://www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2024/06/16/april-15-may-30-2024-washington-post-schar-school-poll-key-state-voters/
