DFrom the first moments on stage, the sight is disastrous: Joe Biden strides with a jerky, stooped, hesitant step. In a downtown Washington pub frequented by politicians and lobbyists, silence falls during the debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Occasionally, a “Wake up, Joe!” rings out. Republicans burst out laughing when Donald Trump says, “I didn’t understand what he said at the end of his sentence, I don’t think he understood himself.” He sums up what most Americans saw in the first debate of this presidential campaign: a man with a fixed gaze, stammering, and a hushed voice, whom his entourage tried to put down to a bad cold.
Matthew Bartlett, a former State Department official under Trump who resigned after January 6, is unsparing: “It was a horrible, horrible night for the president, and it was one of the most important of his presidency. It’s no longer about who won the debate, it’s about whether President Biden should resign and whether he’s competent enough to be the nominee. Conversely, former President Trump appears to be on track for a historic return to power.”
Trump’s lies take second place
Ben Proto, the Republican leader in Connecticut, insists: “We just saw what happens when people don’t know when it’s time to leave the stage. He did a huge dent in his political legacy tonight. He did a lot of damage to the Democratic Party. As a Republican leader, I think that’s great for us. He was lost, confused, unable to finish his sentences, he proved why he shouldn’t be re-elected.” As a political road warrior, he knows that Democrats are panicked, he imagines the conversations to try to convince Joe Biden to step down. Thursday night, after the debate, on CNN, the network that had organized it, speakers followed one after the other calling for him to be replaced. Is it possible? And wise for Democrats? To summarize the opinions of the experts interviewed: yes, and not necessarily.
First observation, everyone is dismayed. Michael Genovese, a political scientist at Loyola Marymount University in California, analyzes: “For the general public, it’s the start of the 2024 campaign. If that’s the first thing you see, what do you remove some? It weighs down Biden. All the criticism about his age, some of which is true, came to the fore. He confirmed the worst version of himself. Trump too, but we’re used to it. » Donald Trump has continued to lie, but it has taken a back seat.
Genovese uses the same term as John Judis, the influential Democratic theorist and author, to describe Dean Phillips, the quixotic candidate seen this winter in New Hampshire, who claimed Biden was a good man but no longer fit to run: “a prophet.” Judis expected a performance that would be “passable, but not terribly bad.” Linda Fowler, a Dartmouth political scientist, went for a nature walk because she felt so bad: “I can’t believe that in a country as great as this, we’re forced to choose between these two candidates. The worst part was hearing Trump, a convicted felon, accuse Biden of running the country in a criminal manner. I couldn’t believe it, I had to turn off the TV, it was so painful.” She was shocked to receive text messages from the campaign asking for money, “as if nothing had happened.” “I hope they are debating internally whether he can last another three months of campaigning,” she adds.
Who could replace Joe Biden among the Democrats?
But what would the Democrats do? Can they replace it? “They could,” replies Genovese. But would Biden want that? I doubt. He really wants to beat Trump again. He would have to come under enormous pressure, first of all from his wife. » No candidate is officially named until ratification by his party, during the convention, which takes place from August 19 to 22 for the Democrats in Chicago. “But that would be a huge admission of failure,” Genovese adds.
Furthermore, by not choosing Kamala Harris, the party would dismiss a black woman. “And women and blacks are the two electorates that the Democrats must seduce,” he recalls. So while many would love to replace Biden, and while any number of candidates could take over, the cost would be enormous. And the margin was already very narrow between the two candidates. That would put the Democrats in a defensive position. » In this case, the sooner the better, to give a candidate time to establish himself.
There is no shortage of possibilities. Judis reviews them: “Many governors would be eligible, all have strengths and weaknesses. Most mentioned are Gavin Newsom, who is said to be held back by California’s reputation as elitist, New Age, and burdened by homelessness problems. But he is a seasoned politician, in his second term, known nationally. Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, is well respected but not well known nationally. Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania, is serving his first term. There is also Jay Pritzker [milliardaire, très progressiste, NDLR]from Illinois.
Andy Beshear was also followed with interest, because he was re-elected in a “dark red”, very Republican state, Kentucky. All of this would amount to canceling the votes of millions of voters who cast ballots in the Democratic primaries. For Genovese, it’s a safe bet that both candidates are so unpopular that proposing a solution to beat Trump without electing Biden would relieve voters.
Biden should “liberate his voters”
How would this work? During the primaries, each candidate garners electors, who are supposed to vote for him at the convention. It is possible that some will not respect this commitment. “In some states, delegates are required to vote for the candidate they represent, at least on the first ballot,” explains Linda Fowler. “If they do not, they are considered renegade electors. Between four and eight each time change their minds, and no one reacts because it does not change anything. This time, I do not know if they would feel bound, especially since some states do not require it. If big states, like California, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan or Illinois, refused to comply, that would be extraordinary. We have never had a convicted felon as a candidate, nor an 81-year-old man, so we cannot learn from history.” She points out that the delegates approve the rules proposed by the commission. The commission could change them.
Another possibility, Biden could “release his electors”. Everyone would vote for the candidate of their choice, which suggests a laborious procedure. “Before the primary system, in 1972, we had 50 or 60 votes before reaching a majority,” recalls Linda Fowler. “There are a lot of ambitious people who would have wanted to run but didn’t because it’s so difficult to beat an incumbent president,” she continues. I don’t know if they’ll come out of the woods. I don’t think Gavin Newsom is very well liked in the party, he’s seen as someone who’s looking for headlines. And there are all those who lost against Biden and don’t have an organization behind them, it’s late to start it. So Biden would have to agree and transmit everything to this candidate. We cannot remove this candidacy from him by force. »
“A bad night of debate happens”: Obama supports Biden
He could give a voting instruction. “If he dubbed Kamala Harris, she would have an advantage,” imagines John Judis. But many Democrats think she would be a bad candidate and would prefer someone else. » There is a precedent, in 1968. “Lyndon Johnson, very unpopular because of the Vietnam War, had abandoned and dubbed his vice-president, Hubert Humphrey, recalls Linda Fowler. There was also dissension because southern blacks wanted to sit at the convention, in Chicago, so the commission was trying to adjust the rules and southern whites were opposed. Humphrey was chosen by half the delegates, the other half left furious. » All this in a tense context: Bobby Kennedy, who was running against Johnson, was assassinated in June. Demonstrations against the war, which became riots, were brutally repressed. Many fear a repeat this summer.
It remains to be seen whether Biden would agree to step down. On Friday, in North Carolina, he seemed in great shape, replaying the debate in a loud voice, in front of an enthusiastic crowd. Barack Obama wrote a tweet of support. “A bad evening of debate happens. Believe me, I know about it. But this election remains a choice between someone who has fought his whole life for ordinary people and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth – who knows right from wrong and who will be sincere with the American people – and someone who lies like a toothache for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and that’s why the stakes are so high in November. »
The New York Times calls on Biden to step down
Democratic elected officials have since followed one another on the platforms to minimize the scope of the debate. This does not convince Judis, a party expert: “We don’t know what Obama says in private to Biden. We don’t know what will happen this weekend. » Genovese names two groups that could push Biden to withdraw: “Candidates for local offices, in the House of Representatives or in the Senate, for their survival, because Biden would ruin their candidacy; and big donors. »
Judis remains skeptical. The probability is high “that he stays, and that he loses,” he said. “The fact that Democrats haven’t come together and paused everything suggests he might stay,” he adds. Biden was already a bad candidate. “This event will kill him,” he explains. His age is what weakens his candidacy the most. And the problem isn’t the number, 81, but that it doesn’t seem like it can do the job. If he stays, he will get a mediocre vote. People who are unsure, people who don’t like Trump but have doubts about Biden, won’t vote. These are very close elections and that could sign his death warrant. I think he will have big problems with young people.” He also thinks it’s possible “that there could be another incident, a fall or something, that forces him to retire.”
Meanwhile, Democrats are starting the weekend with an editorial from New York Times : “To serve his country, President Biden should step down.” The paper believes that the stakes (“the future of American democracy”) are too high to risk failure. “Mr. Biden has been an admirable president. Under his leadership, the nation has prospered and begun to address a range of long-term challenges, and the wounds opened by Mr. Trump have begun to heal. But the greatest public service Mr. Biden can perform now would be to announce that he will not seek re-election.”
