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Samuel Wagon
Published on
Nov. 22, 2024 at 6:44 a.m.
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2025 is already shaping up to be a black year for the new home market in Toulouse. For two years, the Pink City has continued to sink into an unprecedented crisis whose peak has still not been reached. According to the Toulouse Real Estate Observatory, prices fell slightly compared to the previous year but should suffer a clear augmentation by the next quarters.
The price per m2 steps back
Prices know this year a confirmed decline in this third quarter. The average prices of collective sales on the new housing market are estimated at 4 470 € / m2 in the urban area of Toulouse. A drop of almost 2% compared to 2023, but an increase of 4% in two years.
In the city, average prices are €4,655 per m2. Once again, we see a slight drop of 2% over the third quarter of 2023 as well as an increase of 3% compared to 2022.
The calm before the storm
At the heart of a unprecedented real estate crisisthis drop in prices is only a lull before a real increase, which should already materialize in the next quarter. The number of listings fell by half with only 2021 new homes on the market this quarter, compared to 4,227 in 2022, considered an average year. A sharply declining supply which should logically lead to an increase in prices in the months to come.
“From there, prices can only increase going forward. Commercial supply is in free fall and developers are in the red. This drop is only temporary,” assures Michaël Merz, president of the Real Estate Observatory.
Supply expected to decline further in 2025
If 2024 confirms the crisis situation that began last year, 2025 will mark its peak. The supply has already decreased significantly in the space of two years and the trend should indeed continue.
In question, Toulouse has many large T4 and T5 accommodations “that individuals cannot afford”. However, T2 and T3 “continue to be the subject of tension, representing nearly 80% of sales and 70% of the offer“. Prices should therefore increase for T2 and T3 housing, which is increasingly rare and in high demand.
“There are too many large housing units in Toulouse, people cannot buy. We will have to fight for the few T2 and T3 that there are on the market. Prices will increase and may never come down,” predicts Michaël Merz.
On average, the price of a T2 in Toulouse is around 213 000 € et 272 300 € for a T3 (collective price, excluding parking). On the other hand, for a T4, the average unit price is estimated at 358 100 € and until 485 100 €for a T5.
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