War in Ukraine: acceleration of military and diplomatic maneuvers before the return of Donald Trump

Who will have the advantage in Ukraine before Donald Trump returns to the White House? Reading the press in recent days, I clearly have the feeling of acceleration, of intensification of operations on the military and diplomatic field, to know which of Moscow or kyiv and its allies, the main one, Washington, will arrive in a position of strength at the negotiating table. Knowing that Donald Trump repeats that he will not provide aid to Ukraine, too exorbitant for American taxpayers, recall Fox Newsthe BBC et the Ukrainian newspaper Kyiv Independent. At a time when Moscow and the Tass agency, financed by the Kremlin welcome, this morning, Russian advances in the Kursk region, particularly in the Olgovskaya forest where “Ukrainian soldiers were defeated”, Ukrainian online newspaper Novynarnya denounces new abuses: Russians shot down Ukrainians they had captured, still in the Kursk region. Joe Biden rushes to supply more weapons to Ukraine, abandoning long-standing red lines, notes BBCbefore leaving the White House: sending antipersonnel mines to Ukraine to stop Russian advances as part of new aid of nearly $300 million, green light to Ukraine, too, to strike on territory Russian with American-made long-range missiles. And then, kyiv used British long-range missiles against Russian territory for the first time, after obtaining authorization from London, report the british daily Financial Times, Channel 4 News, l’agence Bloomberg et le journal online Ukrayinska Pravda. Until now, Westerners feared Moscow's reaction but the United Kingdom finally gave the green light, in reaction to the arrival of thousands of North Korean soldiers to help the Russian army, says the Guardian.

Nuclear threat and disinformation: In the event of a “massive” attack on a country supported by a nuclear power, Moscow has warned: Russia may use nuclear weapons, according to a doctrine updated on Tuesday, specify the Russian newspaper Kommersant et the Political sites. In this battle, as much military as diplomatic, disinformation is also a weapon, notes the Kyiv Independent : the United States embassy was briefly closed on Wednesday in kyiv, as were the embassies of Spain, Italy, Hungary and Greece because of threats of air attacks which circulated on the Internet and on Telegram messaging, explains Ukrainska Pravda. But for Ukrainian intelligence, it was just an attempt to sow panic. The threat of Russian strikes has been “daily” since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, recalls the Kyiv Independent. The American embassy has reopened its doors, says Ukrainska Pravda.

More than 1,000 days of war: weariness is spreading among the Ukrainian population

Emotional exhaustion, injured deaths, drop in income: fatigue is gaining on the Ukrainians, testifies Ukrainian journalist Vladyslav Golovin in the pages of the Canadian newspaper Globe and Mailwhile Ukraine has passed the milestone of 1,000 days of war. In addition to military losses, more than 12,100 civilians died in Ukraine, nearly 27 million men, women and children were injured, says the independent Russian media Mediazona who leans UN figuresspecifying that this assessment is underestimated . Everyone knows victims of the war in Ukraine, and families are sometimes separated. Vladyslav Parkhomenko, a history student in kyiv, who left his hometown of Zaporizhia (in the south of Ukraine), tells his daily life to l’agence AP : “has kyiv as in Zaporizhia, everyday life is a nightmare. Every day there are new explosions, every day there are civilian casualties, every day there are strikes on civilian infrastructure and residential buildings. In fact, every day is a struggle.”entrusts this student to l’agence AP. And this is also reflected in the opinion surveys regularly carried out by the International Institute of Sociology in kyiv, notes the Globe and Mail : “to the question 'How much longer are you prepared to endure the war?', 'as long as necessary', previously answered the majority of participants – 71 to 73%. But in the last survey, which took place in September and October this year, this figure fell to 63% for the first time”. War weariness is starting to set in, also believes The Conversation magazine.

War exhausts soldiers: In the Ukrainian ranks, a man testified to this weariness. “For months, Serhii Hnezdilov has been campaigning for troops exhausted by years of war with Russia to be replaced by new conscripts. He has expressed his concerns in interviews as early as 2023, in Novynarnya online newspaper, on social networks et in a podcast, drawing on his five years of combat in an infantry brigade”tells him New York Times. But Mr Hnezdilov, 24, said his calls went unanswered. So at the end of September, he took a drastic step that he hoped would draw attention to his cause: he defected, then announced it publicly on Facebook and in media like Ukrainian Pravda. At the end of October, according to OSINT analyst WarMapper, open source intelligenceRussian troops occupied 17.95% of Ukraine's territory, reports Mediazona. “At this point, the trajectory of the war is in Russia's hands. The Ukrainian army is retreating in the east of the country, so for now, Vladimir Putin has no reason to stop. The only way to force him to sit at the negotiating table is a military defeat, which is not in sight in the near future. […] If Russia succeeds in expanding its territory, the aggressor will consider this a green light for further aggression. Europe had this experience in the run-up to World War II, and Mr. Putin could repeat Hitler's path. European leaders must learn from the mistakes of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and French Prime Minister Édouard Daladier, who were convinced that the policy of appeasement in international relations would avoid a war, by making concessions to the enemy. Unfortunately, they were wrong.”concludes Ukrainian journalist Vladyslav Golovin in the Globe and Mail.

The German army prepares companies for the possibility of war in the East

We are already witnessing drone overflights, espionage attempts, sabotage and cyberattacks, explained a lieutenant colonel from the Hamburg region to entrepreneurs at the Chamber of Commerce. “In four to five years, Russia capable of attacking further west. Russia currently produces 25 main battle tanks per month, Germany three per year”reports the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. The German daily was able to consult parts of a secret strategic document of the Bundeswehr – the German army: in the thousand pages of this plan, there is a clear description of the role of the economy “in the event of a Russian attack on NATO's eastern flank.” Germany would then become “a hub for tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of troops expected to be transported east, along with war materials, food and medicine”, also reports the Berlin morning post.

Concrete advice to respond to economic and logistical challenges: “For every 100 employees in your company, train at least 5 additional truck drivers, even if you don't currently need them”suggests the German army, cited by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitungcar “Today, 70% of the trucks on German roads are driven by Eastern Europeans. And if there is war in Eastern Europe, where will these people be?” An exercise called Red Storm Alpha was also carried out in Hamburg, to train in the protection of the strategic port's docks, “to prepare for espionage attempts and prevent acts of sabotage”continues the German daily. The name of the exercise Red Storm Alpha “suggests Exercise Red Storm Bravo is already in the works”.