If it remained stable between April (3.37%) and May (3.36%), l’inflation rose again in June, reaching 3.74%, according to figures released this Thursday by the Directorate General for Statistics (Statbel).
According to Statbel, this increase in inflation is currently being amplified by the dissipation of the impact of the basic flat rate for electricity and natural gas, an effect that disappeared from the price index in March 2024. The disappearance of the basic flat rate “will therefore continue to have an upward impact on inflation up to and including February 2025”.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.22% over one month to reach 131.87 points in June.
The main price increases recorded in June concerned natural gas, which saw its price soar by 128% over a year, fresh seafood (+46.9%) and olive oil (+32.7%).
In contrast, video equipment (-17.7%), mobile phone equipment (-14.5%) and laptops (-13.7%) showed the most significant declines over a 12-month period.
Food inflation slows
If we look in more detail food inflation (including alcoholic beverages), this has slowed down and amounts to 0.31% this month compared to 1% the previous month. The contribution of food products to inflation is currently 0.07 percentage points.
Looking at the 50 products that we have been monitoring for several months, this slowdown in price increases over one month is observed in particular on store shelves through light beer, fresh fruit, fresh fish, wine and pizzas. frozen.
| Food product | Price evolution over 1 month | |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Light beer | -8% |
| 2. | Fresh fish | -4,9% |
| 3. | Fresh fruits | -4,2% |
| 4. | Vin | -4% |
| 5. | Pizzas et quiches | -1,7% |
Conversely, certain products experienced a relative price increase over a month. These include rice, tea, jam, sauces and condiments, as well as frozen vegetables.
| Food product | Price evolution over 1 month | |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Riz | +10,1% |
| 2. | Thé | +7,6% |
| 3. | Jam, marmalade and honey | +6,3% |
| 4. | Sauces and condiments | +5,9% |
| 5. | Frozen vegetables | +3,8% |
The biggest increases continue to be for olive oil and potatoes
If the prices of certain products have experienced strong increases or significant decreases over a period of one month, it is necessary to analyze the evolution of prices over a year so that it is significant.
And if we look at the figures, we realise that over the last 12 months, it is still the prices of olive oil and potatoes that have seen the biggest increases. Then come light beer, frozen vegetables, as well as mutton and lamb.
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Comparing the evolution over a year and that over a month, we notice that the price of light beer has increased significantly over 12 months but that it has fallen significantly since May.
| Food product | Price evolution over 1 year | |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Olive oil | +32,7% |
| 2. | Potatoes | +14,7% |
| 3. | Light beer | +9,6% |
| 4. | Frozen vegetables | +6,7% |
| 5. | Mutton or lamb meat | +6,2% |
Conversely, over the past year, the food products that have seen their prices fall the most are whole milk, tea, fresh fish, skimmed/semi-skimmed milk and fresh fruit.
Comparing the evolution over a year and that over a month, we see that the price of tea has been increasing since May while it has been decreasing over a period of a year.
| Food product | Price evolution over 1 year | |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Whole milk | -8,8% |
| 2. | Thé | -8,6% |
| 3. | Fresh fish | -8,5% |
| 4. | Skimmed and semi-skimmed milk | -8,3% |
| 5. | Fresh fruits | -8% |
Do you want to get an idea of the price variations of a particular product, whether it is food or not? Discover our panel of 50 products in the module below. Simply choose a product from our selection and see the increase in its price over 5 years, 1 year or even 3 months.
Energy, health index and HICP
And for energy ? We are seeing positive inflation, which stands at 15.10% this month compared to 11.17% last month and 9.19% in April. For electricity, inflation is currently at 13.3% compared to 3.6% last month. For natural gas, it goes from 84.4% last month to 128.0% this month.
Compared to last month, natural gas prices increased by 6.0% and electricity prices by 3.4%. This is explained by the dissipation of the impact of the basic electricity and natural gas package, as explained above.
The price of heating oil, smoothed over 12 months, increased by 0.1% in one year. Fuels cost 0.3% more than in June last year and decreased by 3.0% this month compared to the previous month.
Energy: the price of fuel oil increases slightly on Saturday (infographic)
Also note that core inflationwhich does not take into account the evolution of the prices of energy products and unprocessed food products, stood at 2.97% in June, compared to 2.80% in May.
In June, the health index increased by 0.50 points to 131.92 points, compared to 131.42 points in May. The smoothed health index stood at 128.86 points in June. The next pivot index for the civil service and social benefits is set at 130.67 points.
The first estimate of inflation according to the European harmonized consumer price index (rapid estimate of the IPCH) for Belgium is 5.5% in June 2024.
