The phone call made on Friday, November 15 by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Russian President Vladimir Putin provoked a volley of greenhorns from his partners. “A very strange strategy”, tackled Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian foreign minister. “This call was not coordinated between allies,” criticized his Estonian counterpart Margus Tsahkna.
If France showed restraint in its official speeches, the embarrassment was no less visible. In kyiv, there was no holding back: according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the German Chancellor would have “opened Pandora’s box” by helping Vladimir Putin emerge from his diplomatic isolation.
In fact, Berlin's hour-long call to Moscow reignited the debate over whether Europe should speak with Putin. The question is all the more acute as future American President Donald Trump, who will take office at the end of January, has promised to quickly bring a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine, raising fears of a cut in vital military aid for kyiv.
“Russia doesn’t care about Europeans”
“From the moment when Trump called Putin (November 7, according to information denied by the Kremlin)it was inevitable that at least one high-ranking European leader would do the sameestimates Sam Greene, professor of Russian politics at King's College London in his TL newsletter; DRussia. For Europeans, the idea that the United States and Russia are negotiating over their heads about a war on the European continent is unacceptable (…) Europe is obliged to protect itself against American irresponsibility, and having a telephone conversation with Putin is an integral part of this protection. »
In the case of the German chancellor, the problem concerns the aim, and the manner. Without coordination with other Europeans, or prospects of long-term follow-up to the extent that Olaf Scholz will probably leave office in February due to the breakup of his coalition, this call seems to have mainly served electoral purposes. He only just informed Washington, London, Paris and Warsaw. The massive bombardment of Ukrainian energy infrastructure by Russian missiles and drones two days later demonstrated how little concern Vladimir Putin has for poorly planned calls for restraint.
For the Europeans, the main challenge lies in the fact that the Kremlin does not see them as significant players in the negotiations which are about to open. “The Russians don’t care about talking to Europeans. They want to talk to the Americans. They are the only credible interlocutors in their eyessays Olivier Schmitt, professor of political science at the Center for War Studies at the University of Southern Denmark, who does not believe that Vladimir Putin is truly seeking a negotiated outcome to the conflict. «For now, he thinks he can win, so he has no interest in negotiating, continues the expert. That's why I don't see the point in talking to him now. The priority is to establish ourselves as credible interlocutors, by putting ourselves in a position of strength.»
Security guarantees
Getting to the negotiating table therefore implies defining a strong common position between now and Donald Trump's return to the White House. This is the whole issue of the diplomatic agitation which has gripped the European scene since the announcement of his victory on November 6. “It is not a question of proposing our own peace planwarns Camille Grand, researcher at the European Council on International Relations (ECFR) and former NATO deputy secretary general for defense investment. The aim is to coordinate a message about the military aid and security guarantees we are willing to offer Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. In short, before talking to Putin, we need to talk to each other.»
The objective for a large part of Europeans is to ensure that the “deal” desired by Donald Trump is not synonymous with the vassalization of Ukraine by Russia, or a resumption of war in the months or years that follow. . “For this, we must defend Ukraine’s capacity to hold the frontsays Nicu Popescu, researcher at ECFR and former foreign minister of Moldova. So provide them with more equipment than today, continue this support beyond a possible truce, or even deploy peacekeeping troops in Ukraine.» Put forward on Tuesday by Estonia, this latest idea promises to encounter resistance within Europe. And not just from Germany.
