The results of the US presidential debate on 27 June have caused a major upheaval in the financial markets. While polls had previously given Joe Biden the advantage, investors now seem to be betting on a Donald Trump victory. This sudden shift in expectations has sent shockwaves through the markets, with the S&P 500 and the US dollar rising sharply.
The S&P 500’s recovery and the dollar’s rise, signs of a Trump victory?
Since the debate, analysts have noted several key indicators showing a change in market perception. THE S&P 500 thus came closer of its historic highsnow just 15 points from his record.
This surge reflects growing investor confidence in a possible return of Trump to the White House and in the economic policies that it would put in place.
In parallel, US dollar hits record high since last November. The simultaneous progression of the S&P 500 and the greenback underlines the complexity of the interactions between political events and market trends. financial markets. Generally speaking, a rise in the US dollar tends to negatively impact prices on the cryptocurrency market.
Biden’s Democratic nomination chances are dwindling
Even more surprising, the odds of the Democratic nomination have undergone a radical upheaval. In the space of just two hours, the odds of a re-nomination of Joe Biden fell 24%.
This historic fall opens the way for other potential candidates, such as Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris, whose chances have increased considerably.
Today, markets estimate 38% the probability that Biden will not be nominated as a Democratic candidate. A situation which still promises many twists and turns in the months to come.
What is the outlook for the markets in the coming months?
Analysts anticipate a period of high volatility in the markets in the next four months, until the November election. Investors will have to remain vigilant and agile in the face of a constantly evolving political situation.
Beyond political considerations, investors will be watching closely the economic calendar of the different candidates and their potential impacts on markets, employment, inflation, etc.
What you must remember
The US presidential debate yesterday sent shockwaves through financial markets, with the S&P 500 and the US dollar surging. These movements reflect a sudden reversal in expectations, with investors appearing to now bet on a victory the Donald Trump.
This shift also had an unexpected impact on the chances of the Democratic nomination, with a dizzying drop the chances of a reinauguration of Joe BidenA situation which promises many more twists and turns in the months to come.
Faced with this increased volatility, investors will need to be vigilant and agile to navigate through the political and economic turbulence ahead. As beyond electoral considerations, these are good economic issues which will be decisive for the future of the markets.
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