What was until now a means of pressure is transforming into an increasingly credible scenario.
It is no longer a noise from the corridors and from staff. The position has been clearly assumed, since this morning, by Marine Le Pen: the purchasing power of the French is a “red line”. If it is “amputated”, the RN deputies vote for censure. She will do it again, Monday, in Matignon, where she will be received by Michel Barnier.
With such a broad red line, there will always be an excuse to bring down the government.
Has this ever happened in the past?
No. Since 1958, no government has ever fallen on budget.
The only big accident dates back to Christmas 1979. The Barre government wants to move quickly, too quickly. He votes on spending before revenue. Lack of procedure. And the left, notably the young socialist deputy Laurent Fabius, appealed to the Constitutional Council. The budget is censored on December 24.
And how was the crisis overcome?
Truce from the confectioners, but not from the legislator. Parliament urgently adopted a “special law authorizing the government to collect, in 1980, taxes and duties” from 1979. In the process, the executive took a series of decrees which made it possible to reproduce the level of expenditure of the past year. Everything is validated by the Sages on December 30. Phew, New Year’s Eve is saved.
In short, no shutdown like in the United States. The civil servants were paid.
Let's come back to Christmas 2024: if there is censorship voted for, no shutdown, but a crisis nonetheless?
Let's imagine, in a month: at 49.3 from Michel Barnier, responds the motion of censure from the NFP deputies, adopted thanks to the 142 votes of RN and Ciottistes. It is the fall of the executive, which switches to business as usual mode.
It will first be necessary to determine whether the budget is part of current affairs. Given the urgency, it's yes. This censored executive is then tasked with passing the “special law” which allows the budget to be renewed. But without any savings, which will automatically cause our deficit to soar towards 7%!
Even darker scenario: if even the special law does not receive a majority, there is chaos. This scenario was never considered. Hence this reflection, among jurists, to find out if article 16 on the special powers of the President could then be triggered.
Before getting to that point, the left AND the RN must vote together…
Would a major government party like the PS condone such a crisis at Christmas? Without a return to the polls, since Emmanuel Macron cannot dissolve again before next summer…
Response from the socialist executives with whom I spoke. 1/ The post-Barnier period is already discussed. 2/ The PS does not want to save Michel Barnier. “Don’t shift the blame,” I was told. “Disorder is dissolution, then this common base which has nothing in common.” 3/ “We are not accountable for the votes of the RN”. 4/ Saving Michel Barnier would erase opposition, weaken democracy, and therefore play into the hands of the RN…
So, to answer your question: censorship is not a commentator's fad to scare people. Censoring the budget is the absolute political act: the one that classifies you in the majority or in the opposition. In an age of polarization, no one is making any more concessions.
In the event of censorship, it will be a double penalty: the first is that the names of the ministers are changed, but not the blocs in the Assembly. Nothing is resolved. Economically, second penalty: welcome to land, or rather to debt, unknown.
