“Putin is focused on winning. It won't stop on its own. The more time he has, the worse the conditions become. » This was stated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a speech to the European Parliament on Tuesday. Receiving a standing ovation from the MEPs, this speech came to mark a symbolic date: the 1,000 days since his country was attacked by the Russian armed forces, triggering the greatest conflict that Europe has experienced on its soil, since the end of the Second World War.
War in Ukraine: green light for the use of long-range missiles
Three days before this statement, the Biden administration authorized kyiv to use long-range American missiles on Russian territory. A measure considered by the Kremlin as a red line not to be crossed, which in response announced on Tuesday the signing of a decree expanding its possibilities of resorting to nuclear weapons. At the same time, the intensification of its aerial bombardments on the Ukrainian capital, as well as on the country's energy infrastructure. udoes not qualify as posture“escalatory” by Emmanuel Macron, who called yesterday Vladimir Poutine “to reason”.
Is this new military situation the harbinger of an uncontrollable escalation of the conflict, even beyond the borders of Ukraine? ANDfour-point answer elements.
1. Ukraine now better armed against Russia
“If long-range missiles are used from Ukraine towards Russian territory, this means that they are operated by American military experts. We will view this as a new phase in the Western war against Russia and respond accordingly.” This is what Sergei Lavrov, head of Russian diplomacy, declared at the G20 on Tuesday, following the launch of six long-range American ATACMS missiles against a military site in the Russian border region of Bryansk.
Russia accuses Ukraine of firing US missiles
Unprecedented since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the use of these strategic missiles has a “immediate impact”according to Cyrille Bret, specialist in defense issues, and associated researcher at the Montaigne and Jacques Delors institutes: “This new equipment allows the Ukrainian armed forces to strike Russian rear bases which supply its units on the front. This makes it possible, on this point, to reduce a certain inequality, because Russia could already use this type of equipment against Ukraine. »
Another benefit of using ATACMS missiles for Ukraine according to the expert: “Arrive as much as possible in a position of least weakening with a view to the upcoming negotiations on the outcome of the conflict. »
2. Not a NATO declaration of war on Russia
“Short term”adds the researcher, the use of ATACMS missiles can be considered as a “aggravation of the conflict”. This, to the extent that the United States “no longer ensure only the self-defense of Ukraine”but allow him to attack Russia itself. “The Kremlin will surely consider that Westerners are pushing themselves to the limits of co-belligerence”specifies the researcher.
War in Ukraine: NATO “will not give in” in its support for kyiv, warns Mark Rutte
From there to considering this initiative as a declaration of war on the part of NATO? “No, to the extent that no troops under NATO uniform are engaged in Russia, and there has been no official declaration of war between the two camps”replies the defense specialist. “On the other hand, this new situation will be widely used by Russia for its propaganda against the West and the Transatlantic Alliance. »
3. Russia should not use its nuclear weapons
Late Tuesday afternoon, Russia said it had carried out new nuclear military exercises, under the supervision of President Vladimir Putin. Earlier today, the latter signed a decree expanding the possibilities of using nuclear weapons. “Among the conditions justifying the use of nuclear weapons is the launch of ballistic missiles against Russia”indicates the decree.
Enough to raise new concerns about the use of these weapons, which are much more powerful than their conventional counterparts. On this point, Cyrille Bret would like to reassure: “On the surface, we have the impression that there is a lowering of the threshold for using Russian nuclear fire. But in reality, there is nothing to suggest its effective use by the Kremlin. »
Vladimir Putin dangerously changes the rules for using nuclear weapons
And the researcher cites two reasons for this. On the one hand, militarily, Russia is “on the offensive”she wins ” success “ with its conventional weapons, and it sees that the resistance capacities of the Ukrainian forces “are limited”. On the other hand, with the return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States, Vladimir Putin “is rather in a strong position to negotiate an end to the conflict”. And to specify: “To this end, using nuclear fire would be totally counterproductive. »
4. Putin delays negotiations with Trump
Reason why the researcher believes that the increase in intensity of the conflict in Ukraine on the military level is certainly, « notable », but will only be “short term”. “Putin predicts that President Trump, unlike Biden, will deauthorize long-range American missiles”analyzes Cyrille Bret. This, to be faithful to his campaign promise to end the war in Ukraine in “24h”and thus relieve the United States of the financial burden represented by military support for Ukraine.
