The United States has given the green light to kyiv to use its ATACMS missiles on Russian territory. For more than a year, the Ukrainian army has already been firing British munitions at strategic sites in annexed Crimea.
The announcement was quickly followed by effects. The Russian army says it repelled, on Tuesday November 19, an American ATACMS missile attack directed against military installations in the Bryansk region which it said did not cause any damage. Two days earlier, the United States had given the green light to Ukraine, which had been demanding for months to be able to use these munitions on Russian territory. The Ukrainian army hopes to disrupt enemy logistics chains and command in this way. This decision by the White House, with an obvious political dimension, came a few weeks before the inauguration of Donald Trump, which brings with it a lot of uncertainty over future American military support.
Until now, kyiv had to be content with sending drones to strike Russian territory, with limited operational ambitions. ATACMS missiles are of a completely different nature. It is about “medium and long range cruise missiles which are primarily intended to target objectives of high strategic value”explains analyst Alain de Neve, specialist in defense issues. On paper, such munitions would allow Ukraine to reach logistical sites and the airfields from which Russian bombers take off. Which would relieve the Ukrainian forces, put to the test in the Donbass.
The use of ATACMS missiles is not completely new in this conflict, since kyiv has already been mobilizing them since October 2023 in Crimea, a region annexed by Russia but Ukrainian according to international law. A few months earlier, London had started the ball rolling by delivering Storm Shadows. These long-range munitions filled a clear gap in Ukraine’s arsenal, complementing its national Neptune anti-ship missile system.
France followed in the footsteps of the United Kingdom in July by delivering the same Franco-British missile, named Scalp, to this side of the Channel. Paris has always refused to specify how many Scalp missiles had been delivered and whether they had been used. The number of units transferred is qualified as “confidential data” in the annual communication of the armed forces. Asked in Brussels last month about possible Scalp missile strikes on Russian soil, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu refused to comment.
The list of targets mentioned by kyiv in the peninsula annexed by Moscow gives an idea of the objectives sought, even if it is necessary to be cautious about the successes claimed by the belligerents. Last month, for example, the Ukrainian military said it used Storm Shadows to strike three Russian command posts and ATACMS to destroy a Nebo-M radar station. The Russian army, for its part, claimed in May to have neutralized American missiles fired at night towards the Belbek air base, near Sevastopol, where its 38th aviation regiment is based.
These precise missiles can hit the enemy right in the heart. One of the most high-profile examples occurred in September 2023, when the headquarters of the Russian fleet command in the Black Sea was bombed. In the images shot that day, we can clearly see one of the warheads plunging into the already gutted building.
The Russian navy has also been the subject of particular targeting. In March, kyiv announced that it had hit four ships in the port of Sevastopol, without providing details on the method of operation and the munitions used. But several specialist analysts quickly concluded that Storm Shadow was used. Western missiles have “permitted to strike bases located in Crimea which housed infrastructure used by the Russians, as well as ships in the Black Sea”summarizes Alain de Neve.
In December 2023, the Ukrainian Air Force also claimed responsibility for an attack on the port of Feodosia, inflicting serious damage on a large landing ship, the Novotcherkasskwhich was undoubtedly carrying ammunition on board, given the explosions. Several observers had seen the imprint of Western missiles. The same year, during the summer, the general staff claimed responsibility for a strike on a Russian submarine – the Rostov-on-Don – by targeting a dry dock in Sevastopol with Storm Shadows.
The American think tank Institute for the Study of War had also noted, at the start of the year, that the number of ships had decreased in the ports of the annexed peninsula, in favor of ports located further east, such as that of Novorossiïsk. Western missiles are all the more valuable as the Ukrainian army is deprived of naval force.
Command and logistics nodes, aviation, naval forces… These Western missiles have “allowed, in part, to release this vice” Alain de Neve abounds in the region. But the expert also recalls that Russian ships “are not in their prime” in the Black Sea and emphasizes “failures and a certain lightness in the defensive systems” Russians. The researcher also emphasizes the importance of operations carried out with “DIY maritime drones”very efficient considering their cost.
However, Russian officials continue to express their concern about these precise and fast missiles. Sergei Naryshkin, director of the Russian foreign intelligence service, recently described the Crimean bridge as “priority target for Storm Shadow”. The same day, a military oil depot was hit in Feodossia, after ATACMS fire. The Russian army, for its part, regularly publishes press releases to praise the successes of its anti-aircraft defense, with the desire to present these missiles as trophies.
Last September, a Russian soldier presented a flocked metal part “MIS SCALP” under examination, in a video from the RIA Novosti agency, assuring that it was the bottom of a warhead from a Western missile . Contacted on this subject, the French Ministry of the Armed Forces did not respond to our request for authentication, nor did the missile manufacturer MBDA or the French engine manufacturer Sermat, whose name is engraved on the part. A few months ago, the Sputnik agency also published photographs purporting to present the internal structure of a Storm Shadow.
These missiles can be fired by American HiMARS or MLRS launchers or from Ukrainian army bomber planes (Sukhoi Su-24, Su-27, etc.). These missiles can theoretically reach 500 km or even 600 km in the armies of supplier countries. But in Ukraine, they are limited to 300 km in order to respect the missile technology control regime (MTCR), which constrains signatory states during such transfers. “The main problem with these missiles is ultimately being able to designate targets that are worth destroying”continues Alain de Neve.
Especially since this weaponry has a cost: one million dollars per unit. If the Storm Shadow and ATACMS were used mainly in Crimea, continues the analyst, it is because it was easier there to identify “opportunity and strategic targets” that in the “occupied eastern regions”. Military intelligence is more difficult on the Donbass front, by definition dynamic and evolving, and these missiles lose their interest in the heat of combat. It therefore remains to be seen what use would be reserved for such missiles on Russian territory.
Some 250 tactical or strategic sites have been identified by the independent Russian-speaking newspaper Novaya Gazeta within the potential range of action. It remains to be seen whether the pilots will have the opportunity to approach the front line to exploit its full range, while the Russian forces have put in place a solid anti-aircraft defense.
The strikes launched in the Bryansk region at dawn on Tuesday targeted the arsenal of a logistics center. This provides a first indication of their future employment. Anyway, the objectives “will be defined in consultation between the Ukrainian armed forces and the supplier countries, whose logisticians and planners are experienced in implementing these missiles.”summarizes Alain de Neve. “We simply extendment the zone of possibility to Russian territory, not necessarily in great depths.”
“The authorization granted by the Americans is restrictive. If there is no proven tactical or strategic effect, the target will not be treated.”
Alain de Neve, specialist in defense issuesat franceinfo
The Russian army, in any case, was able to anticipate this new information. “Part of the Russian air bases located within the range of these missiles have already been emptied of their main strategic bombers which have been moved further away”assures geopolitologist Ulrich Bounat on franceinfo. According to this expert, the green light granted by the United States for strikes on Russian territory “will make it possible to strike ammunition depots and groupings of troops. But it will not have the strategic effect that it could have had a few months ago”.
Another unknown: the reaction of the Kremlin. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz renewed his refusal to deliver Taurus missiles in the fall. He fears that his country will find itself “in some way involved in the war”evoking, in the case of Storm Shadow, a necessary “targeting support from of the British and the French”. The launch of these missiles “passe, at least in part, by national protocols” supplier countries, confirms Alain de Neve, imagining “an interference by French or British planners”. With, in summary, “uan involvement that goes beyond the simple provision of a keystroke system”.
Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, promised a response on Tuesday “appropriate” after the attack on Russian territory carried out with American ATACMS missiles. While inviting Western countries to read “in full” the new Russian nuclear doctrine, just adopted this morning by Vladimir Putin. In the meantime, concern seems to be spreading to the regions bordering Ukraine. Yuri Sliousar, governor of Russia’s Rostov region, asked local administrations to conduct evacuation drills and inspect air-raid shelters, according to local media 161.ru: “I don’t know if Comrade Trump will change this position, but we probably have a very difficult time ahead. Long-range missiles will pose an additional threat.”
