OTake the same ones, and start again. Joe Biden and Donald Trump will cross swords this Thursday at 9 p.m. (3 a.m. Friday in Paris), four years after their last presidential contest which ended with the assault on the Capitol. In the CNN Atlanta studio, the roles are reversed this time. Biden is an unpopular incumbent, who must defend his record on inflation and immigration. Trump, for his part, leads the polls in a handful of key states by a narrow margin, but presents himself as a “felon” (criminal) as the first ex-president in history to be criminally convicted.
The third man, Robert Kennedy Jr., failed to register in enough states to be invited. It will therefore be a duel, in front of the cameras, between these men who hate each other and who repel more than half of Americans. Joe Biden is playing big: never has a president with a popularity rating capping at 40% been re-elected. And at 81, he must convince himself that he has the energy – and the cognitive abilities – to continue for four more years.
In modern American history, “presidential debates have had an impact in close elections,” judges Aaron Kall, director of debates at the University of Michigan, whose students won three consecutive national titles between 2020 and 2022. “ No other event, not even party conventions, allows you to speak to more than 70 million Americans. »
READ ALSO In France or the United States, can televised political debates be decisive? Among the notable moments, the expert cites the presence of John F. Kennedy in front of the cameras against Nixon in 1960 and the enormous failure of Gerald Ford in 1976. Faced with Jimmy Carter, the former vice-president assures that there is “no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe.” A statement that made his National Security Advisor choke and cost him, at least in part, the election.
While everyone expected George Bush to be beaten by Al Gore in the year 2000, the Republican held up better than expected. After the debate, the media only talked about the Democrat’s untimely sighs, which reinforced his image as an arrogant technocrat in the face of the almost charming simplicity of the Texan. Four years ago, Joe Biden took advantage of Donald Trump’s incessant interruptions with a scathing “Will you shut up, man” and recorded a slight rebound in the polls after the first debate.
Captain’s age
Faced with questions about Biden’s age, Aaron Kall recalls that another incumbent had to reassure the Americans: a certain Ronald Reagan, 73, when he faced, in 1984, the Democrat Walter Mondale, 56. “You are the oldest president in history, and members of your team have said you are tired. Would you be able to (run the country) on little sleep like JFK during the Cuban Missile Crisis? » asks the moderator. Reagan’s response is part of the mythology of presidential debates, like Giscard in France with his famous “You do not have a monopoly on the heart, Mr. Mitterrand!” “. “I will not make age an issue in this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, the youth and inexperience of my opponent,” Reagan replied. The room explodes with laughter. Mondale too. Ronald Reagan wins the election in a chair.
For Biden, it won’t be as simple as a well-felt punchline. Three out of four Americans consider him too old for a second term. The special prosecutor – Republican – Robert Hur published a report incriminating him, describing him as “an old man with a failing memory”. At a press conference, the Commander-in-Chief of the United States got angry, responding to a journalist: “I know what I’m doing, dammit!” » At the beginning of June, the Wall Street Journal adds a layer with an article in which sources, mainly anonymous, describe a Biden distracted and forgetting details during negotiations on the debt and the budget last winter. And then there are these videos which are multiplying, in which the American president seems lost or freezes.
Some are judiciously edited or cropped to accentuate the effect. At the G7, in particular, Biden is talking to a paratrooper off-camera when Meloni puts his hand on his shoulder to lead him back to the flock like a lost sheep. But the damage is done: in politics, as the adage attributed to Republican consultant Lee Atwater goes, “perception is reality.”
“It must at all costs avoid fueling this fire and needs energy performance,” judges Kall. Biden is capable of it: during the last two State of the Union speeches, we saw him particularly lively and upbeat, skillfully playing off the Republicans with the experience of a man who has spent half a century in the mysteries of power. So much so that Donald Trump and his allies have sometimes accused him of taking drugs to improve his cognitive performance during important meetings. This weekend again, Trump joked about “a sting in the butt”. This is the other side of the coin, by repeating that Joe Biden is half senile, Donald Trump lowers the bar of expectations to floor level. The Democrat just needs to do better than expected to give the impression of a good performance.
Opposing preparations
For their grand oral, the two candidates prepare, each in their own way. Joe Biden likes repetition, Donald Trump prefers improvisation. Biden is training at Camp David in real conditions with his former chief of staff, Ron Klain, as coach. Four years ago, it was a former White House legal advisor to the Obama administration, Bob Bauer, who played the role of Donald Trump. He told The Daily Beast that he watched “hours and hours of video” to get into the character and tried to destabilize Biden by insulting him. Consultant Philippe Reines, who did the same for Hillary Clinton in 2016, went further by dressing like Trump and growing taller with platform soles.
READ ALSO Biden or Trump? What will make the difference in the next American presidential election “A debate is a physical performance – you are on your feet for more than two hours – but above all a mental one. You have to repeat your scales to be comfortable,” insists Aaron Kall. Who suggests a rehearsal at the same time as the big day: “We don’t have the same energy at 9 p.m. as during the day. » Rest and good nutrition should also not be neglected.
Donald Trump has another approach. He participates in a few informal sessions with his advisors but without a dress rehearsal, preferring to increase the number of electoral meetings. “He has a comeback and he is a formidable counter-puncher (counter-attacker), he prefers spontaneity,” judges the university coach. Above all, after more than fifteen years of reality TV with The Apprentice“he’s right at home on a TV set, he knows where the cameras are and how everything is framed.”
Summer debate and cut microphones
On the weak side, “in seeking to dominate discussions, Trump too often interrupts his opponent or the moderator. This can turn off independent voters, who are often moderates who want civility.” Biden stuttered when he was young and it sometimes bothers him. “He loses the thread and is not always easy to follow. » But the American president “uses colloquial language and humor often appreciated by the older electorate he courts”.
One big unknown remains: never has a televised face-off taken place so early in an American campaign. Traditionally, the first debate takes place in late September or early October. But Donald Trump and Joe Biden, unhappy with the organization of 2020, decided to do without the services of the presidential debate commission and turn directly to CNN and ABC in order to shake up the campaign in the summer.
Joe Biden wants to relaunch himself by attacking his competitor on abortion. He also hopes to reduce the “nostalgia effect” that Donald Trump benefits from – historically, voters appreciate a former president’s tenure more over time, forgetting the bad times. The Republican candidate, on the other hand, believes he is capable of delivering a fatal blow to a weakened opponent. Trump even agreed to rules that seem to favor Joe Biden: it is a debate without an audience, and the candidates’ microphones will be cut off when it is not their turn to speak. If the match goes badly, Donald Trump can always return to his favorite strategy: criticizing the refereeing.
