VHere, June 26, 2024, are the results of the five poll aggregators concerning the American presidential election of November 5 that we have selected.
All five aggregators have been updated.
Four of them put the extremist and populist demagogue Donald Trump in the lead with a lead that has increased over the centrist Joe Biden.
An aggregator gives a very short advantage to the Democrat over the Republican.
Trump’s lead in the four updates where he is in the lead is between 0.3 and 1.3 points.
Biden’s lead in the polls where he is leading is 0.1 points.
Deviations that fall within the margins of error.
► Results from poll aggregators Biden versus Trump
| Aggregator | Joe | Donald | Gap |
| Real | 45,2% (=) | 46,5% (+0,3) | Trump 1,3 (+0,3) |
| The Hill | 43,8% (-0,1) | 45% (+0,5) | Trump 1,2 (+0,6) |
| Race to | 45,6% (-0,5) | 45,9% (-0,3) | Trump 0,3 (+0,2) |
| 270 to | 44,4% (-0,7) | 44,7% (=) | Trump 0,3 (+0,7) |
| Five | 40,9% (+0,1) | 40,8% (+0,1) | Biden 0,1 (=) |
*NA: not updated / ND: not available
(A poll aggregator is an average of the last published polls / 270 to win takes into account the last five polls / Real Clear Politics takes into account polls published in the previous 30 days / The Hill takes into account polls published in the last 3 days / Race to the WH takes into account polls published over the last 5 days) / 538 takes into account all polls published since 1is mars)
Important note: All these aggregators take into account all published surveys.
However, some of them are published by institutes whose seriousness is open to discussion and others by institutes which are affiliated with parties and which tend to make corrections, adjustments and weightings in favor of the candidate that they they support.
It is therefore appropriate to take them as useful information but which does not give a “scientific” vision of opinion.
However, national polls are generally more accurate than state-by-state polls, especially swing states, because the panels are often not representative enough in terms of quality or quantity and the adjustments are questionable.
All these biases mean that we have preferred to publish above all aggregators than each poll that is published even if, in a second step, we intend to publish some which seem serious to us as well as those which analyze the state of opinion on a daily basis and which have not yet been started.
