After 1,000 days of war, the threat of recourse to arms is once again brandished by Russia, but also by Ukraine.
After 1,000 days of a war which left hundreds of thousands dead and cost tens of billions of euros on both sides, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine seems far from ending.
Since February 24, 2022, kyiv’s allied countries have had all types of weapons up to combat aircraft (F-16s and soon Mirage 2000-5s). The United States recently agreed to the use of long-range missiles to hit targets on Russian territory. Now, the use of nuclear weapons is being discussed by Moscow and kyiv.
In case of “massive attacks”
The Kremlin said Tuesday that expanding the possibilities of using nuclear weapons was a “necessary” response to what Russian President Vladimir Putin considers to be “threats” emanating from the West against Russia’s security .
“It was necessary to adapt our foundations to the current situation,” explained presidential spokesperson Dmitri Peskov during his daily briefing.
In this context, Vladimir Putin signed the decree expanding the possibilities of using nuclear weapons. The Kremlin believes that the possibility of resorting to nuclear weapons would be a “necessary” response in the event of “massive attacks” by the West against Russia. Clearly, Moscow does not want on its territory what it is doing in Ukraine.
In recent days, Russia has carried out deadly strikes on civilian areas. A Russian missile attack on Monday left at least ten dead and 43 injured, including four children, in Odessa, a port city located on the Black Sea, although far from the front line. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the Russians fired an Iskander-M ballistic missile at Odessa. The projectile was shot down by the anti-aircraft defense, but its fragments fell on a residential area.
A rudimentary but powerful bomb
On the Ukrainian side, no official threats. On the other hand, a report produced by CACDS, a Ukrainian think tank, for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense mentions the use of nuclear power “if Donald Trump withdraws American military assistance”. Unveiled by the British daily The Times, this document discusses kyiv’s capabilities to develop a nuclear bomb within a few months.
“The country would quickly be able to build a simple plutonium-based device with technology similar to that of the Fat Man bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 1945,” reports The Times.
The power of the bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 1945 by the Americans was approximately 20 kilotons.
Still according to this report, the decision to use this bomb could be taken if the Russian army reached the town of Pavlograd, near Dnipro and about a hundred kilometers from the current front line.
Is this a pressure move to encourage Donald Trump not to cut aid or reduce it too drastically?
A risk studied by NATO
The nuclear risk has been studied by NATO since the start of the conflict and Russian nuclear power would have even pushed kyiv’s allies to exercise a certain caution. According to the chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, this is what dissuaded the Alliance from launching an offensive against Russia by sending troops to Ukraine.
“Fighting in Afghanistan is not the same thing as fighting the Russians in Ukraine. The Taliban do not have nuclear weapons, the Russians do,” recalled Rob Bauer a few days ago during a summit on defense in Prague.
“I am absolutely certain that if the Russians did not have nuclear weapons, we would have been in Ukraine for a long time chasing them. We certainly would have done so,” concluded Admiral Bauer.
The nuclear risk remains high. In a report on armaments, Greenpeace warns Europeans against a nuclear slip-up which could trigger a confrontation between NATO and Russia.
According to Sipri reports, the alliance countries display superiority over Russia in conventional weapons. On the other hand, NATO and Russia have equal nuclear power. The three NATO member countries with deterrence (United States, France and Great Britain) had 5,559 nuclear warheads. Russia has 5,580. The two adversaries would thus have the capacity to destroy each other.
