Among its macroeconomic outlook at the national level, Bank Al Maghrib expects inflation to slow more quickly than expected in 2024.
Taking into account the achievements and the resumption of the decompensation process, inflation is expected to end the current year at an average rate of 1.5%, and increase to 2.7% in 2025, according to BAM forecasts. Its underlying component, which reflects the fundamental trend in prices, would evolve at moderate levels, i.e. 2.3% this year and in 2025, adds the Central Bank, which also predicts that food products with volatile prices would see their prices drop. record a slight decrease of 1.2% in 2024 after an increase of 18.8% in 2023.
Likewise, BAM forecasts that the prices of fuels and lubricants should experience a drop of 0.3% in 2024, then increase by 1.7% in 2025. Regarding regulated prices, these would display according to the Central Bank an increase of 1.9% in 2024, compared to 0.8% recorded in 2023, before marking an increase of 4.6% in 2025.
Inflation at 0.4% in May
After rates of 6.6% in 2022 and 6.1% in 2023, inflation returned to 1.2% on average in the first quarter of 2024 then to 0.2% in April and to 0.4% in May, indicates BAM. This slowdown, according to the Central Bank, is mainly attributable to the accentuation of the fall in the prices of food products with volatile prices to -7.6% on average in April and May, after -1.2% in the first quarter. , as well as the deceleration of underlying inflation from 2.2% to 2%.
Conversely, and in connection with the start of the decompensation of butane gas from May 20, regulated prices increased by 0.5% in annual comparison, instead of stagnating in the first quarter of 2024, while fuel and lubricant prices increased by 6% against a decline of 1.1%.
Inflation is also expected to continue to slow internationally
At the international level, inflation should continue its decline in the medium term, returning to the level of 4.7% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024 then to 3.1% in 2025. In the euro zone, it would slow down by 5 .4% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024 then to 2.2% in 2025 and in the United States, it would continue its downward trend, falling from 4.1% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024 then to 2 .7% in 2025, underlines BAM.
