THE prix of the main futures contracts on the wheat and on the but rebounded this Friday, November 15, 2024 on the CBOT. The increase was valid for all wheat maturities (between +5 and +8.5 cents/bushel) with a gain of 6.25 cents/bushel over December, to 536.5 cents/bushel, and an increase of 5 .75 crs$/bushel in March, the most worked deadline. Same movement for corn, however less marked, with increases of between 2.5 and 5 cts$/bushel depending on the deadlines. On Euronextwhich had resisted the declines of the previous week on the CBOT rather well, prices also recorded a nice increase, between 1.5 and 6.75 €/t depending on the terms (+5.5 €/t for that of December, at €216.25/t; +€4.25/t for March, the most processed, at €224/t). On the markets hexagonal physical figures, the prices of soft wheat, corn andbarley fodder also closed up nicely. Those of durum wheat remained stable.
To find out everything about agricultural market news, click here
The weekend was turbulent on the markets of agricultural raw materials : after a week of sharp decline on the US wheat and corn markets, the investment funds and operators in general returned to purchases this Friday, allowing the price to rebound across the Atlantic. Different elements collided or complemented each other on the markets, between the fundamentals of the grain sectors, macroeconomics and geopolitics.
The keen appreciation of dollar facing theeuro seems to be stabilizing (parity at $1.055 on Friday against $1.053 the day before). It will therefore be necessary to monitor the reaction of wheat (a certain buying interest appears for EU origin) and corn, which a priori find their account by this level of euro-dollar parity. Operators must also integrate the swirls on the oil (falling on Friday, operators worrying about “a possible surplus of crude by 2025, as well as a drop in demand”, according to AFP). There European Commission announced on Friday that it was counting on a slight acceleration in economic growth (+1.3% for GDP in 2025 after +0.8% in 2024) and a continued slowdown ininflation in zone euro (+2.1% in 2025 after +2.4% this year). Note also that the weekend was marked by new very violent attacks by the Russia on the territory of Ukraine, leading the government authorities of theUkraine to announce the application this Monday of “restrictive measures” of electricity consumption throughout its territory, the attack having “significantly damaged its energy infrastructure”, according to the country's Ministry of Energy, reported by AFP .
On the fundamentals, operators are keeping a close eye on the very end of the corn harvests in UNITED STATESon grain harvests in Australia and on the growing conditions and of semis elsewhere. Strong rains are expected this week in France. The USDA must publish its Crop Progress weekly today at 6 p.m. French time.
In Francewe will also follow the protest movements of agricultural unionswhich begin this Monday. While some organizations are pleading in favor of symbolic actions, others say they are ready for a “blockade of food freight” from Wednesday, particularly in the Southwest. Anger is rising again in the sector, between broken promises, context of bad harvest of 2024 and possibility of imminent signing of theEU-Mercosur free trade agreement. The AGPB, which defends the interests of cerealsemphasize that two measures, defended by the association of producersare emerging: loans of cash subsidized medium-term loans and long-term consolidation loans (twelve years) guaranteed by the State (via BPI France). However, she also says she is waiting for answers on other proposals (fund for reducing charges from crisis units, exemption to move from the three-year average to year n-1 in order to make the social and tax costs of the year 2024 or 2025 without waiting the five years normally required; request for activation by France of the crisis reserve;European Union).
Note that this Monday an “Agriculture and Fisheries” council is being held at EU level, with a debate on the situation of agricultural markets and basic products. Ukraine's Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Vitalii Koval, is expected to join the ministers ahead of their discussion.
The President of the French Republic met this weekend with the Argentine President, ahead of the G20 which runs until November 19. For his part, the new president of UNITED STATES appointed Chris Wright, a climate skeptic, as Energy Secretary, with “the deregulation of the sector as a roadmap”, according to AFP.
To find out everything about the latest news from professionals in the grain sector, click here
Fundamentals:
- Argentina, corn, sowing : 38.6% of the surfaces have been planted (source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange);
- Argentina, wheat, harvest : 17.2% carried out (source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange);
- Türkiye, wheat, imports : 6.5 Mt planned for 2024-2025, or 31% less than last year (source: S&P Global Platt's).
Commerce international :
- United States, wheat, export sales : for the week ending November 7, 2024, 380,100 t, within analysts' expectations (source: USDA);
- United States, corn, export sales : for the week ending November 7, 2024, 1,315,100 t, within analyst expectations (source; USDA).
French physical markets from November 15, 2024 (July base for cereals)
Soft wheat | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
Dunkirk rendering | 220/11 miller Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 216,00 | N | 5,50 |
Rendering La Pallice | 76/220/11 Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 215,50 | N | 5,50 |
Rendering Rouen | 76/220/11 Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 215,50 | N | 5,50 |
Pontivy/Guingamp rendering | forage 74 kg/hl base, 72 kg/hl mini Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 217,50 | N | 5,50 |
Fob Moselle | miller Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 228,50 | N | 5,50 |
Fob Rouen | FCW Superior A2 class 1 major. included Harvest 2024 | nov. | 218,82 | | 1,05 |
| FCW Medium A3 class 2 majo. included Harvest 2024 | nov. | inc. | | |
Fob La Pallice | FAW Superior A2 class 1 major. included Harvest 2024 | nov. | 220,02 | | 1,05 |
Departure from Marne | BPMF 220 Hagberg Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 224,00 | N | 4,00 |
Departure from Eure/Eure-et-Loir | BPMF 76 kg/hl Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 216,50 | N | 4,00 |
Departure South-East | miller Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | n.p. | | |
Durum wheat | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
Rendering Port-la-Nouvelle | semolina standards Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 300,00-305,00 | N | 0,00 |
Departure from Eure/Eure-et-Loir | semolina standards Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 295,00-300,00 | N | 0,00 |
Departure South-East | semolina standards Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 290,00 | N | 0,00 |
But | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
Bordeaux rendering | Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 200,50 | N | 3,00 |
Rendering La Pallice | Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 201,50 | N | 3,00 |
Pontivy/Guingamp rendering | Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 208,50 | N | 3,00 |
Fob Bordeaux | Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 204,50 | N | 3,00 |
Fob Rhin | Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 212,00 | N | 3,00 |
| Harvest 2024 | Jan-Jun | 218,50 | N | 3,50 |
Departure South-East | Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | n.p. | | |
Feed barley | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
Rendering Rouen | 62-63 kg/hl Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 191,50 | N | 5,50 |
Pontivy/Guingamp rendering | Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 193,50-194,50 | N | 5,50 |
Fob Moselle | without limit. orgettes Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 188,50 | N | 5,50 |
Departure from Eure/Eure-et-Loir | Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 179,50 | N | 5,50 |
Departure South-East | 62/63 kg/hl Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | n.p. | | |
Malting barley – Winter 6 rows | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
Fob Creil | Faro 11.5% max Port 500 t Harvest 2024 | Nov.-March | 224,00 | N | 0,00 |
Malting barley – Spring | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
Fob Creil | Planet 11.5% max Port 500 t Harvest 2024 | Nov.-March | 235,00-237,00 | N | 0,00 |
Sunflower | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
Bordeaux rendering | oleic Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | n.p. | | |
Rendered Saint-Nazaire | oleic Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 650,00 | N | 10,00 |
Rapeseed | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
Rendering Rouen | Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 539,00 | N | 8,50 |
Fob Moselle | Harvest 2024 | Jan-Mar | 541,00 | N | 8,50 |
Soybean meals | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
Departure Montoir | 48% pellets Brazil | nov. | 368,00 | V | -6,00 |
| 48% pellets Brazil | dec. | 366,00 | V | -6,00 |
Then | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
Departure from Marne | forage Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | 296,50 | N | 5,50 |
Departure from Somme/Oise | forage Harvest 2024 | Nov.-Dec. | n.p. | | |
Quotations of milling products from November 12, 2024
Its fine soft wheat | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
Departure from Ile-de-France | | available. | 125,00-127,00 | T | |
| pellets | available. | 134,00-136,00 | T | |
Half-white remolding | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
Departure from Ile-de-France | | available. | 164,00-166,00 | T | |
Low flour | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
Departure from Ile-de-France | | available. | 168,00-170,00 | T | |
Commercial quotes for dairy products from November 14, 2024
Milk powder | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
| NBPL departure at 30 days 5% H BT bulk | available. | 2420,00 | T | |
Whey powder | Specifications | Due date | euro/t | | Variation |
| NBPL departure at 30 days, BILA pH 6 bulk | available. | 855,00 | N | |
Evolution dollar / euro du 15 novembre 2024
Devise | Closing value |
1 dollar US | 0,9449 euro |
1 euro | 1,0583 dollar |
Chicago Futures Market Closes November 15, 2024
Raw materials | Fence | Chicago |
Wheat | 536,50 | cents/wood. |
But | 424,00 | cents/wood. |
Ethanol | 2,161 | $/gallon |
Military | 998,50 | cents/wood. |
Soybean meals | 289,60 | $/t |
Soybean oil | 45,35 | cts/livre |
Closing of the Euronext futures market on November 15, 2024
Milling wheat (Euronext) |
Echéance | Fence |
Dec. 2024 | 216,25 |
Mars 2025 | 224,00 |
May 2025 | 228,25 |
Volume | 133135 |
Corn (Euronext) |
Echéance | Fence |
Mars 2025 | 210,25 |
June 2025 | 215,00 |
August 2025 | 218,25 |
Volume | 2383 |
Colza (Euronext) |
Echéance | Fence |
Feb. 2025 | 539,25 |
May 2025 | 534,75 |
August 2025 | 494,50 |
Volume | 24095 |
Rapeseed oil (Euronext) |
Echéance | Fence |
Mars 2023 | 698,50 |
June 2023 | 698,50 |
Sept. 2023 | 698,50 |
Volume | 0 |
Rapeseed meal (Euronext) |
Echéance | Fence |
Mars 2023 | 196,25 |
June 2023 | 196,25 |
Sept. 2023 | 196,25 |
Volume | 0 |
European Union Wheat (CME) |
Echéance | Fence |
Sept. 2018 | 159,25 |
Dec. 2018 | 163,25 |
Mars 2019 | 164,75 |
Volume | 0 |
International market quotes from November 15, 2024
Energy | Echéance | Closing value |
Oil (Nymex) | Dec. 2024 | 67,02 $ |
Ocean freight indices | from November 15 | Variation |
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) | 1785 | 93,00 |
Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) | 1212 | -1,00 |
Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) | 3229 | 293,00 |
Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) | 1019 | -10,00 |
Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI) | 685 | -2,00 |