Gas prices are increasing again on world markets, which is good news for the Algerian economy which derives most of its foreign currency from the export of hydrocarbons.
In Europe, the prices of this energy are at their highest in a year, due to new concerns linked to the continuity of Russian supplies.
This time, it is a legal battle between the Russian Gazprom and the Austrian OMV which is pushing prices up and prices could increase further in the coming days.
Such a development is always good news for Algeria, a major gas supplier to Europe and 7e largest exporter in the world, even if we are still far from the historic outbreak of 2022 which followed the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. In August of the same year, prices had reached a peak of more than 300 euros per megawatt hour.
On Thursday, November 14, gas prices on the European market reached their highest level in a year, jumping 5%, to 45 euros per megawatt hour. This is the first time that such a level has been reached since November 2023, underlines the British newspaper The Guardian.
At the origin of this increase, a statement from the Austrian company OMV, one of the largest gas traders in Europe, announcing that a court decision granting it compensation after its dispute with a subsidiary of the Russian Gazprom could lead it to suspend its supplies.
As winter approached, concerns about a possible gas shortage quickly resurfaced after this declaration.
According to the British newspaper, OMV received 230 million euros under the rules of the International Chamber of Commerce after its dispute with Gazprom over its supply contract.
The Austrian group plans to recover this sum by withholding its monthly gas payments, but this could prompt Gazprom to interrupt its deliveries.
“OMV could withhold the next payment, but this could prompt Gazprom to immediately break the contract. The active OMV contract represents just under half of the gas currently passing through Ukraine“, explains to the Guardian Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analysis at the independent Canadian firm ICIS.
New concerns over Russian gas drive prices up
The situation could come to a head as early as next week, when OMV’s next monthly payment is due, the analyst said.
The Austrian company has, however, reassured that it will be able to continue to deliver gas to its customers even in the event of a potential disruption in deliveries from Gazprom, by exploiting alternative sources.
The Austrian Energy Minister, for her part, declared that the country’s gas supplies were secure because it “sHe had been preparing for a possible disruption of supply for a long time” and that its storage facilities were full.
While ensuring that Austria “ can and will do without Russian gas“, the minister however conceded that “sudden supply interruption could cause stress on gas markets« .
The standoff took the markets by surprise. The Guardian points out that before the court decision, analysts at Rystad Energy expected, on the contrary, a fall in gas prices due to the widely available supply in Europe and on the global market.
For the coming years, analysts predict declines in the prices of all fossil fuels.
The International Energy Agency predicts that these fuels will become significantly cheaper and more abundant by the end of the decade, as companies produce more oil, gas and coal than the market needs.
Global oil supply would exceed demand next year, the same organization estimated in a report published Thursday. Which, according to the World Bank, should lower the prices of gasoline and food.
Algeria is among the 10 largest gas exporters globally, with exports of 53 billion m3 in 2023 out of a total production of 103 billion m3.
The three largest Algerian gas customers are Italy, Spain and France.
Algerian hydrocarbon exports reached $60 billion before dropping to $50 billion in 2023. In 2023, oil taxation represented 41% of the state budget.
