For the French, there is little suspense over the name of the winner of the legislative elections: a clear majority predicts the victory of the RN, according to an Odoxa poll for Public Senate and the regional press, published this Tuesday. 56% of those questioned see the formation of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella winning, compared to only 24% of the New Popular Front and 18% of the presidential majority.
The French do not particularly want this announced victory of the RN: only 28% of them would be happy with the arrival of Jordan Bardella in Matignon, believing that it would be “a good thing because they want the electoral victory of this party or the defeat of the other parties. Far more people (42%) think this would be a bad thing.
The successful demonization of the RN can be read on a category of French people: those who neither wish nor fear its arrival in power
French people neither for nor against
“But now, the successful demonization of the RN can be seen in a third category of French people: those who, ultimately, neither wish nor fear its arrival in power. The latter are as numerous (29%) as those who aspire to RN governance,” explains Gaël Sliman, president of Odoxa. “It is they who, ultimately, without really wanting to, are preparing to let them come to power. If we add them to the 28% of RN supporters, today we have in France 57% of our fellow citizens who are finally ready for the extreme right to come to power in France for the first time under the Fifth Republic. he emphasizes.
The “block vote” no longer really exists
While it had been massive in 2002, then still very present in 2017, the “blockade vote” against the far right no longer really exists, even for those who do not like the RN. From now on, he even plays less against this party than against the two other major rival forces. Thus, the share of French people who plan, beyond other reasons for their vote, to vote to “block the RN” (41%) is less significant than the share of those who plan to “block” the New Popular Front. (47%) or the presidential majority (44%). Renaissance supporters are, for example, more likely to consider “blocking” the NFP than the RN (71% vs. 65%).
Survey carried out on June 19 and 20, with a sample of 1,002 people.
