A very symbolic phone call. The German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, had a telephone conversation on Friday November 15. It had been two years since the line was cut between Berlin and Moscow. The German leader asked the Russian president to withdraw his troops from Ukraine and negotiate with kyiv. Vladimir Putin replied that a peace agreement should take into account the “new territorial realities”.
This exchange provoked the anger of Ukraine, which saw it as “an attempt at appeasement” towards Moscow. “Conversations with the Russian dictator alone do not bring added value to achieving a just peace”reacted the spokesperson for Ukrainian diplomacy, Georgii Tykhy. Instead, kyiv advocates “concrete and strong actions” to force Russia into peace. Why does this telephone interview irritate, even worry, Ukraine? Franceinfo takes stock of the reasons for the discord.
Because Volodymyr Zelensky is worried about the drop in Western aid
This telephone interview comes at a time when Ukraine fears that Western, and particularly American, aid will be cut. Donald Trump, newly elected as head of the United States, has continued to criticize the military and financial support provided to Ukraine by Joe Biden, and his vice-president, JD Vance, is also hostile.
This opening of dialogue with Vladimir Putin “makes Volodymyr Zelensky fear that German policy will follow the position of Donald Trump as we imagine it”that is to say a reduction in military aid to kyiv, argues Carole Grimaud, specialist in Russian geopolitics and teacher at the University of Montpellier. Especially since “Ukraine considers Germany a leader in Europe”she adds. Berlin is Europe's biggest provider of financial aid to Ukraine, according to data from the Kiel Institute.
Olaf Scholz also follows a political agenda, while his government coalition was shattered, leading the country to early elections on February 23. Gold, “Germany is divided over aid to Ukraine”explains Carole Grimaud, which makes it a campaign issue.
Because he fears that Western leaders will in turn open dialogue
In speaking with the head of the Kremlin, Olaf Scholz broke with the line held until now by Western leaders, who have refused for more than two years to sit at Vladimir Putin's table. Volodymyr Zelensky fears that this call will“opens Pandora's box”. “There may now be further conversations and phone calls. And that is precisely what [Vladimir] Putin has been looking for a long time”castigated the Ukrainian president in a video published on X and Telegram on Friday.
“It is essential for him to break his isolation, as well as that of Russia.”
Volodymyr Zelenskyin a video published on X and Telegram
“This appeal can only confirm the conviction of [Vladimir] Putin that Germany and other European countries dream of resuming 'business as usual' at the first opportunity, including cheap gas purchases”analyzes Tatiana Kastouéva Jean, director of the Russia Eurasia center of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), with the Monde. “This behavior by the largest European country will not encourage it to soften its positions.” Especially since, according to the Kremlin, the call took place “at the initiative of the German side”.
Western leaders have not indicated that they will follow in the footsteps of their German counterpart. And the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, wanted to be reassuring in a message published on X: “I was happy to hear that the chancellor not only unequivocally condemned Russian aggression, but also reiterated the Polish position: nothing on Ukraine without Ukraine.”
But for Carole Grimaud, “if the European posture is to remain firm and continue to support Ukraine, we realize that after almost three years of war, Europe is experiencing difficulties in continuing to provide military aid”. Moreover, “if several international actors move towards a form of negotiation, it is better to be among the States which will participate (…) rather than looking at them from the outside”, judge Florent Parmentier, secretary general of the Sciences Po political research center, to France 2.
Because Ukraine is not in a good position to negotiate
By dialoguing with Vladimir Putin, Olaf Scholz strengthens his position for the diplomatic route. The German Chancellor asked Russia to show its “desire to begin negotiations with Ukraine with a view to a just and lasting peace”according to the German government. However, Ukraine is not in a good condition for possible negotiations.
“kyiv was not successful in its counter-offensive last year. It is in a very fragile position today, because there are fewer men, less equipment…”
Carole Grimaud, specialist in Russian geopoliticsat franceinfo
If Volodymyr Zelensky said he wanted an end to the war in his country in 2025 by “diplomatic means”he also insisted that“in a position of weakness, there is nothing to be done in these negotiations”in an interview with Ukrainian media Suspilne, broadcast on Saturday. Asked about the conditions necessary for the opening of negotiations, the leader estimated that this would only be possible if “Ukraine was not alone with Russia”in an appeal to its Western partners, and in particular Donald Trump. Without ever specifying his plan, the Republican has repeatedly claimed that he would be able to put an end to the Russian invasion “in less than 24 hours”.
Russia is open to talks, but with “concessions” on the part of kyiv, including the cession of the Ukrainian territories annexed by Moscow in 2022. Volodymyr Zelensky is opposed to this and is counting on his occupation of part of the Russian region of Kursk to have influence at the negotiating table. But according to several observers, the Kremlin is intensifying its responses to the Ukrainian forces. “Evacuating the Ukrainians from Russian territory would cause them to lose a considerable advantage at the time of negotiations”believes Carole Grimaud.
