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(Corrected to add the context of “current trajectory scenario” at the head of the page)
Global oil demand will fall to about 80 million barrels per day by 2035 in a net zero environment, and to 100 million bpd in the current trajectory scenario, BP’s chief U.S. economist BP said. L at an energy conference held in Dallas on Wednesday.
Demand for crude oil is currently around 102 million bpd, and forecasts assume that renewable energy and more efficient motor vehicles increase over this period. However, BP’s Michael Cohen said the world will need to continue investing in fossil fuels to ensure an orderly transition to cleaner energy.
Growth in non-OPEC oil supply will outpace demand growth in the coming years, limiting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) ability to add barrels to the global market, Mr. .Cohen.
Market developments will also lead to a change in production and configurations of oil refineries. Refiners will modify their plants to produce more naphtha to replace gasoline, and there will be greater integration of oil and petrochemical operations, Mr. Cohen said.
Gasoline’s share of other refined products supplied by refiners will fall to around 15% by 2050, from 25% today. Automakers will continue to build vehicles with internal combustion engines, and the number of miles driven worldwide will increase, Mr. Cohen said, but lightweight vehicles will be more fuel efficient.
The drop in gasoline demand will particularly affect European refineries, according to Mr. Cohen.
“The Atlantic Basin component of declining refining throughput is the largest of any region,” Mr. Cohen said.
While investments in oil and gas production will remain stable, there will be a massive increase in spending on renewable energy, he added.
