Key information
- Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by more than a million barrels per day in 2025.
- Non-OPEC+ supply is expected to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day next year, thanks to rising production from countries like the United States and Guyana.
- Global demand growth has fallen below 1 million barrels per day this year as China's oil demand has slowed significantly.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil supply will exceed demand by more than a million barrels per day in 2025, even as OPEC+ continues to cut production. This projection is explained by increasing oil production outside OPEC+ member countries, combined with slower-than-expected global demand growth.
Although its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 remained largely unchanged from the previous month, with an increase of 990,000 barrels per day, the IEA forecasts that non-OPEC+ supply will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day. barrels per day next year. This growth is attributed to increased production in countries such as the United States, Canada, Guyana and Argentina.
Recovery in global demand
In contrast, OPEC recently revised downward its forecasts for global oil demand growth for this year and next, marking the fourth consecutive monthly downward revision. This adjustment cites weakness in major economies such as China and India, as well as other regions.
The IEA notes that global demand growth has fallen below one million barrels per day this year, a significant decline from the increase of almost two million barrels per day seen in 2023. This slowdown is attributed to weakening global economic conditions and the completion of the increase in oil demand after the pandemic. The decline in oil demand in China is particularly significant, with annual growth forecast for 2024 of just 140,000 barrels per day, a tenth of the growth seen in 2023.
Cleaner energy technologies
Additionally, rapid progress in cleaner energy technologies is increasingly displacing oil consumption. However, the IEA slightly increased its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024 by 60,000 barrels per day, to 920,000 barrels per day, due to stronger-than-expected demand for diesel in developing countries. the OECD during the third quarter.
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